Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$84.68+4.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.27 → 4.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PATK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.47 per share | The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.47 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut below $0.47 per share | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PATK is a diversified, cyclical consumer-products business, with revenue exposed to RV, marine, powersports, and housing markets. The long-term thesis is intact and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but confidence is medium and risk remains elevated.
The evidence labels valuation as stretched, with a durable premium to peers and a positive expectations gap. Model confidence is low, so the size of that premium and what it assumes are uncertain; fragility is rated low because the evidence does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, recent earnings beats and Q3 growth in marine, powersports, and housing support results, but a 15% RV decline kept consolidated revenue near the prior-year level. Reported Q3 operating margin fell year over year, while adjusted margin was flat, so efficiency progress is mixed. The all-stock merger with LCI remains pending, and a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on diversified growth continuing to offset RV weakness and on cost improvements showing through in reported results. Guidance is a key near-term swing factor: a cut would weaken the case, while continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers SN, SGI, and MHK would support the sector backdrop. Their results could also turn into an early warning if they begin missing or guiding lower.
For a 1-to-3-year view, PATK’s diversification and recent results support an intact thesis, but elevated risk, uneven cost execution, a pending merger, and stretched valuation temper the picture. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.47 per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $4.0 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.64 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $4.44 in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 29, 20260.64 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain disciplined cost structure and improve profit margin | Profit margin improved to 6.2% by late 2025. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 4.7% in future quarters | Operating margin: 5.11% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating margin >= 6.2% in FY25. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 20265.10983 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execute strategic acquisitions and integrate businesses | A primary condition in Patrick Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Capital deployed for acquisitions >= $122 million in 2025; Pro forma combined revenue ~ $8.1 billion by Q2 2026. | Under Pressure | Capital deployed for acquisitions falls significantly below $122 million in 2025 or combined revenue fails to approach $8.1 billion by Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.73 → $4.98 · observed estimates
$4.20B → $4.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.73 | $4,203,676,530 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.68 | $4,189,542,890 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.73 | $4,203,676,530 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.68 | $4,189,542,890 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.60 | $4,163,317,360 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.60 | $4,163,332,890 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.60 | $4,163,332,890 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.41 | $4,107,112,290 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.41 | $4,107,112,290 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.43 | $4,107,279,760 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.40 | $4,107,279,754 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.40 | $4,107,279,754 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.43 | $4,107,279,760 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.43 | $4,107,279,760 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.40 | $4,107,279,754 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.43 | $4,107,279,760 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.43 | $4,107,279,760 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.43 | $4,107,279,760 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.40 | $4,107,279,754 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.40 | $4,107,279,754 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.40 | $4,107,279,754 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.40 | $4,107,279,754 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.40 | $4,107,279,754 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.40 | $4,107,279,754 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.40 | $4,107,279,754 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.40 | $4,107,279,754 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.34 | $4,098,959,755 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.34 | $4,098,959,755 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.34 | $4,098,959,755 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.34 | $4,098,959,755 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.34 | $4,098,959,755 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.34 | $4,098,942,338 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.34 | $4,098,942,338 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.34 | $4,098,942,338 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.34 | $4,098,942,338 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.34 | $4,098,942,338 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.34 | $4,098,942,338 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.34 | $4,098,942,338 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.34 | $4,098,942,338 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.34 | $4,098,151,216 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.34 | $4,098,151,216 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.34 | $4,098,151,216 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.33 | $4,093,360,307 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.33 | $4,093,360,307 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.33 | $4,093,360,307 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.33 | $4,093,360,307 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.33 | $4,093,360,307 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.33 | $4,093,360,307 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.33 | $4,093,360,307 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.33 | $4,093,360,307 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.33 | $4,093,360,307 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.33 | $4,093,360,307 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.33 | $4,093,360,307 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.31 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.31 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.31 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.31 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.27 | $4,091,905,762 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.24 | $4,086,369,398 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.23 | $4,081,436,580 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.23 | $4,081,436,580 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.14 | $4,075,029,729 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.14 | $4,075,029,729 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.14 | $4,075,029,729 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.15 | $4,066,827,284 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.15 | $4,066,827,284 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.13 | $4,066,829,729 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.13 | $4,066,829,729 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.13 | $4,066,829,729 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.13 | $4,066,829,729 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.13 | $4,066,829,729 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.13 | $4,066,829,729 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.13 | $4,066,829,729 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.13 | $4,066,829,729 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.02 | $4,054,066,093 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.02 | $4,054,066,093 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.02 | $4,054,066,093 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.02 | $4,054,066,093 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.98 | $4,048,402,456 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.98 | $4,048,402,456 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.93 | $4,047,252,820 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.98 | $4,051,664,153 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.98 | $4,051,664,153 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.98 | $4,051,664,153 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.98 | $4,052,151,425 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.98 | $4,052,151,425 | 8 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.