Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$82.84+1.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PATK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
PATK — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-30
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Agreement and Plan of Merger On June 30, 2026, Patrick Industries, Inc., an Indiana corporation (the “ Company ”), LCI Industries, a Delaware corporation (“ LCI ”), Planet First Merger Sub Inc., a newly formed Delaware corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“ First Merger Sub ”), and Planet Second Merger Sub LLC, a newly formed Indiana limited liability company and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“ Second Me…
Why it matters: If RV revenue keeps falling, it may show bigger problems in the RV market. This could hurt overall performance.
Worry ifRV revenue drops more than 15% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRV revenue stabilizes or grows in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Trends in these markets indicate overall demand and company health. This affects growth strategies.
Worry ifRV revenue shows improvement, growing year over year by more than 5%.
Less concerning ifRV revenue declines year over year by more than 10%, indicating market weakness.
Why it matters: Identifying and achieving cost synergies is crucial for the success of the merger. This will impact financial performance.
Supportive ifManagement says it will save at least $50 million in costs in the first year after the merger.
Worry ifManagement does not find or save any costs in the first year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a dividend of at least $0.47 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe Board cuts or stops the dividend. This shows possible financial problems.
Why it matters: The merger could create significant synergies and enhance market position. This impacts future growth.
Supportive ifThe merger is complete. It is expected to save over $150 million in three years.
Worry ifMerger talks fail or are delayed. This affects growth plans.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is crucial for funding operations and growth. A return to positive cash flow signals better financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations stays negative.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly dividend of $0.47 or higher after the merger.
Worry ifThe Board decides to cut or suspend the dividend after the merger.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a shift in the consumer discretionary sector. This could impact investor sentiment.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median level for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median level for the sector.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.47 per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company reduces or suspends the dividend payout.
Why it matters: Updates on organic growth will show how well the company is following its main goals.
Supportive ifThe company will report organic growth in key markets like RV or Marine soon.
Worry ifThe company fails to show organic growth or reports declines in key markets.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health. It also helps to invest in growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $69 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains below $69 million.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow might show liquidity problems. This could affect future returns to shareholders.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is negative for the quarter.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations is still positive.
Why it matters: If it drops more, it shows cost problems and inefficiencies.
Worry ifAdjusted operating margin may fall below 7.4% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifIf adjusted operating margin goes up or stays above 7.4%.
Why it matters: The merger could create a larger company with $8.1 billion in revenue. It may also generate over $150 million in cost savings.
Supportive ifThe merger closes as planned in the first half of 2027.
Worry ifThe merger faces delays or fails to close.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $360 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,402 loss on $10,000 · 44.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.