Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Paycom (PAYC)
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$268.16+1.97%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.98 → 13.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PAYC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend remains at $0.375 per share | The company pays steady dividends of $0.375 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.35 in next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.38 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.375 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.375 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PAYC is a growth-oriented business with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. Its multi-year view is intact, though management is rated volatile and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
Valuation is tagged as justified, with PAYC at a 1.31 premium to peers and a modest positive expectations gap. This suggests the market already reflects some confidence in the business, while the evidence does not show a high level of fragility.
Near term, revenue growth and execution have been strong: second-quarter revenue rose 9.8% year over year, and full-year 2026 guidance was raised to 7%-8% growth. Management is also maintaining the dividend and actively repurchasing shares, but company momentum has fallen sharply, and a guidance reversal would damage credibility.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustained revenue growth and management delivering on its raised outlook. Sector signals from UBER, ADP, and GRAB matter: continued strong results could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
The multi-year view remains intact, but its support now depends on consistent execution amid elevated risk and a sector headwind. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit rises with operating income at $210 million in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $180 million in Q1 2026 |
Operating income: $168.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $210 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026168,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.069 billion to $1.079 billion, representing a margin of 48.5% at the midpoint.” “Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.007 billion to $1.022 billion, representing a margin of approximately 46% at the midpoint.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches about $2.18 billion in FY 2026 | Paycom grows revenue about 7% yearly, hitting $2.18 billion in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.0 billion in FY 2026 | Revenue: $531.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.18 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026531,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.27 → $13.97 · observed estimates
$2.34B → $2.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.27 | $2,344,372,021 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.27 | $2,344,372,021 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.27 | $2,344,371,971 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.28 | $2,345,207,100 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.27 | $2,344,371,971 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.27 | $2,344,371,971 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.27 | $2,344,374,491 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.28 | $2,345,207,100 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.27 | $2,344,374,491 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.28 | $2,345,207,100 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.27 | $2,344,374,491 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.27 | $2,344,374,491 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.27 | $2,344,374,491 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.28 | $2,345,207,100 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.76 | $2,363,331,658 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.76 | $2,363,331,658 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.82 | $2,368,048,920 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.82 | $2,368,048,920 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.76 | $2,363,331,658 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.76 | $2,363,331,658 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.76 | $2,363,331,658 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.76 | $2,363,331,658 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.76 | $2,363,331,658 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.76 | $2,363,331,658 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.76 | $2,363,331,658 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.76 | $2,363,331,658 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.85 | $2,364,412,850 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.85 | $2,364,412,850 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.85 | $2,364,412,850 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.85 | $2,364,412,850 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.85 | $2,364,412,850 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.85 | $2,364,412,850 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.96 | $2,366,380,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,274 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,274 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,274 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,274 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,274 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,274 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,274 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,274 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,274 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,274 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,876 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,876 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,876 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,876 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,876 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,876 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,876 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,876 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.96 | $2,366,383,876 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.95 | $2,366,567,475 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.95 | $2,366,567,475 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.95 | $2,366,567,475 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.95 | $2,366,567,475 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.98 | $2,367,535,896 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.98 | $2,367,535,896 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.98 | $2,367,535,896 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.98 | $2,367,535,896 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.98 | $2,367,535,896 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.98 | $2,367,535,896 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.98 | $2,367,533,469 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.98 | $2,367,843,996 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.98 | $2,367,843,996 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.98 | $2,367,843,996 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.98 | $2,367,843,996 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.97 | $2,367,820,354 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.97 | $2,367,820,731 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.97 | $2,367,820,731 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.97 | $2,367,820,731 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.97 | $2,367,820,731 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.97 | $2,367,820,731 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.97 | $2,367,820,731 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.97 | $2,367,820,731 | 13 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.