Paycom (PAYC)
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$268.16+1.97%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PAYC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PAYC — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-02
Other Events On November 2, 2026, Paycom Software, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors of the Company declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.375 per share of Company common stock. The dividend will be paid on December 7, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on November 23, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Paycom raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA range and set a 46% margin at the midpoint. Q3 results will test that goal.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is at least 46%, and 2026 guidance remains at $1.007 billion or higher.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is below 44%, or Paycom cuts the 2026 range below $1.007 billion.
Why it matters: Recurring and other revenue made up 95.1% of Q2 revenue. Continued growth here would support Paycom's main revenue base.
Supportive ifQ3 recurring and other revenue grows at least 10% year over year, near Q2's 11.0% growth.
Worry ifQ3 recurring and other revenue growth falls below 8%, beneath the raised 2026 growth range.
Why it matters: Paycom raised its 2026 revenue outlook after Q2 growth of 9.8%. Q3 results test whether that pace continues.
Supportive ifOn November 4, Q3 revenue grows at least 8% year over year, and full-year guidance stays at $2.197 billion or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 7%, or Paycom cuts its full-year revenue range below $2.197 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,786 loss on $10,000 · 37.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.