Paycom (PAYC)
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$231.67-3.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PAYC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PAYC — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-03
Other Events On August 3, 2026, Paycom Software, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors of the Company declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.375 per share of Company common stock. The dividend will be paid on September 8, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on August 24, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The dividend shows Paycom wants to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend of $0.375 per share is paid on September 8, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is canceled or delayed.
Why it matters: A steady or better EBITDA margin shows good cost control. This helps Paycom increase operating income.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was above 44% for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 44% for Q3.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows better cost management. It can lead to higher profits.
Supportive ifOperating income increases by more than 5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income declines or grows less than 2%.
Why it matters: Updates on the share repurchase program can indicate management's confidence in the company's value and future growth. It can also affect earnings per share.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks. This is on top of the $200 million allowed in Q1 2026.
Worry ifNo updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$182 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $442 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,957 loss on $10,000 · 49.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If recurring revenue grows more than 9%, it shows strong client loyalty and demand for Paycom's services.
Supportive ifRecurring revenue growth is above 9% compared to last year.
Worry ifRecurring revenue growth is below 8% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Finishing the buyback shows good use of money and trust in the stock.
Supportive ifThe announced share buyback program is completed by Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe buyback program is not finished or is taking much longer than expected.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows good cost control and money-making.
Supportive ifOperating income grows year over year in Q3, exceeding $168.5 million.
Worry ifOperating income declines or fails to grow year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: If operating income grows less than 10%, it may show problems with costs or sales.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: This would indicate Paycom is struggling to maintain its growth momentum. It could signal challenges in market penetration or client retention.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue growth below 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 total revenue growth of 7% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks show management's trust in the company's value. This can help support the share price.
Supportive ifManagement announces more share buybacks in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchase activity occurs in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payment shows financial strength and a promise to shareholders. It shows management's trust.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.375 per share is made on September 8, 2026.
Worry ifDividend payment is cut or stopped.
Why it matters: A drop in client retention could signal issues with customer satisfaction or competition. It may impact future revenue growth.
Worry ifClient retention rate falls below 90% in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifClient retention rate remains at or above 91%.
Why it matters: If Paycom confirms Q3 revenue growth guidance of 7% to 8%, it shows strong momentum.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 revenue growth guidance of 7% to 8% during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts Q3 revenue growth guidance to below 7%.
Why it matters: Paycom pays dividends regularly. This shows it cares about giving value to shareholders. A change in this could mean financial problems.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.375 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend is cut or reduced below $0.375 per share.