Paychex (PAYX)
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-07-07
$108.12+2.59%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $108.12. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $108 PAYX trades at 20× p/e, below its 31× p/e peer median. Our $121 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits above the analyst range. Analysts target $98–$110. Note: our $121 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($98–$110). Not investment advice.
$98.00 – $110.00 (median $107.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-30
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 27% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 7.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.58/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $107.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $155.59 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $158.76 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $64.46 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $37.20 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $296.88 | 31.3 | 9.50 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $159.79 | 19.0 | 8.26 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $181.30 | 28.1 | 6.46 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $172.19 | 31.3 | 5.51 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $62.26 | 3.5 | 17.62 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $130.61 | 23.7 | 5.51 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $28.17 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $138.98 | 25.2 | 5.51 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $173.22 | 31.3 | 5.54 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $375.33 | 31.3 | 12.01 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $264.71 | 28.1 | 9.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $321.26 | 31.3 | 10.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $77.00 | 3.5 | 21.79 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $243.68 | 23.7 | 10.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $259.30 | 25.2 | 10.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $438.84 | 31.3 | 14.04 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $340.68 | 28.1 | 12.14 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $367.81 | 31.3 | 11.77 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $88.16 | 3.5 | 24.95 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $278.99 | 23.7 | 11.77 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $296.88 | 25.2 | 11.77 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.