Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
Paychex (PAYX)
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$119.50+0.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.41 → 6.41 EPS · FY ending May 31, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PAYX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Grow adjusted diluted EPS by 10% to 11% in fiscal 2026 | Paychex grows adjusted EPS by about 10% to 11% in fiscal 2026. | Intact | adjusted diluted EPS growth falls below 9% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Built on more than 50 years of workforce experience and one of the industry's largest proprietary HR datasets, Paychex's WISE agentic AI engine embeds intelligence directly into workflows to improve productivity, enhance decision-making, and deliver better outcomes.” “Learn more at paychex.com .” Revenue was $1.809 billion in 2026-Q3. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PAYX is a mature payroll and management-services business with a modest growth-and-integration thesis, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. The multi-year view is intact this week, though evidence is mixed and confidence is medium.
The valuation evidence describes PAYX as cheap versus peers, while its priced-in tag is justified and the expectations gap is small. Fragility is low, so the snapshot does not point to unusually concentrated expectations, but the value assessment itself is neutral.
Near term, management is on track with its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS growth goal, and the latest earnings events were positive. Paycor has supported Management Solutions revenue growth, while recent momentum improved; however, earnings quality and recent performance are rated neutral, and sector conditions are a headwind.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued delivery of the EPS goal and successful Paycor integration, including its upmarket and AI plans. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; results and guidance from RHI, KFY, and TNET could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PAYX’s thesis rests on steady execution and integration progress, with sector weakness and the risk of lower guidance as key checks. The current evidence keeps the thesis intact but leaves meaningful risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain adjusted operating margin near 44% in fiscal 2027 | Revenue rises 5% to 6% with a strong profit margin near 44%. | Intact | operating margin falls below 40% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Integrate Paycor acquisition and expand AI capabilities to support 17% to 19% revenue growth contribution | The Paycor acquisition and AI platform boost growth and competitive edge. | Under Pressure | Paycor contribution to revenue growth falls below 15% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements after the date of issuance of this press release to reflect events or circumstances after such date, or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.” “By extending AI-enabled automation and insights across Paychex HCM platforms and into Microsoft business applications where clients already work, we are making these capabilities easier to access and adopt.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve 5% to 6% revenue growth in fiscal 2027 | A primary condition in Paychex's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY growth. | Under Pressure | revenue growth falls below 5% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 5.88% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 24, 20265.876623 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Built on more than 50 years of workforce experience and one of the industry's largest proprietary HR datasets, Paychex's WISE agentic AI engine embeds intelligence directly into workflows to improve productivity, enhance decision-making, and deliver better outcomes.” “Learn more at paychex.com .” Revenue was $1.809 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Repurchase up to $1 billion of common stock in fiscal 2026 | A supporting condition in Paychex's published investment case. The stated target is $1 billion repurchase authorization. | Intact | share repurchases fall below $600 million in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.39 → $6.41 · observed estimates
$7.24B → $7.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.39 | $7,237,926,350 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.41 | $7,239,407,725 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.39 | $7,237,926,350 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.39 | $7,237,926,350 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.39 | $7,237,926,350 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.39 | $7,237,926,350 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.41 | $7,239,405,175 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.38 | $7,237,688,860 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.41 | $7,239,405,175 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.38 | $7,237,688,860 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,680 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.38 | $7,237,688,860 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.41 | $7,239,167,683 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.41 | $7,239,169,549 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.41 | $7,239,169,549 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.41 | $7,239,169,549 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.41 | $7,239,169,549 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.41 | $7,239,169,549 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.41 | $7,239,169,549 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.41 | $7,238,975,523 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.41 | $7,238,975,523 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.41 | $7,238,975,523 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.41 | $7,241,108,856 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.41 | $7,241,108,856 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.41 | $7,241,108,856 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.41 | $7,241,108,856 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.41 | $7,241,108,856 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.41 | $7,241,108,856 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.41 | $7,241,108,856 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.41 | $7,241,308,302 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.41 | $7,241,308,302 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.41 | $7,241,308,302 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.41 | $7,241,308,302 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.41 | $7,241,258,302 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.41 | $7,241,258,302 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.41 | $7,241,258,302 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.41 | $7,241,170,802 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.41 | $7,241,170,802 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.41 | $7,241,170,802 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.41 | $7,241,170,802 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.41 | $7,241,170,802 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.41 | $7,242,695,802 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.41 | $7,242,695,802 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.41 | $7,242,695,802 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.41 | $7,245,258,302 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.41 | $7,245,258,302 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.41 | $7,245,255,915 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.41 | $7,245,630,915 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.41 | $7,245,596,049 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.42 | $7,241,121,793 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.41 | $7,229,491,087 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.41 | $7,229,491,087 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.41 | $7,239,773,440 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,287 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,288 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,288 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,288 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-05 | $6.41 | $7,239,776,288 | 12 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.