Paychex (PAYX)
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$121.71-2.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PAYX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
PAYX — officer change
Dated 2026-07-21
Director — Kara Wilson: Ms. Kara Wilson decided not to stand for re-election at the Company’s annual meeting of stockholders in 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how revenue is growing and how management is doing.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth of 7% or more year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report reveals revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This report will provide updates on revenue growth, EPS, and the impact of the Paycor acquisition.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 6% and adjusted EPS growth of at least 7%.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 6% and adjusted EPS growth below 7%.
Why it matters: Management plans to repurchase up to $1 billion of stock. This can signal confidence in the company's future.
Supportive ifThe company will announce stock buybacks of $500 million or more. This will happen before the next earnings report.
Worry ifNo announcements of stock repurchases by the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Active share repurchases can signal management's confidence in the company's value. It also impacts earnings per share.
Supportive if$1 billion in share buybacks is done or announced.
Worry ifShare buyback activity is much lower than $1 billion.
Why it matters: Achieving this growth shows Paychex is on track with its profit goals for the year.
Supportive ifQ4 EPS growth reported at 10% or higher compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ4 EPS growth reported below 10%.
Why it matters: Integrating Paycor well is important for growth. It helps with reaching new markets and using AI.
Supportive ifManagement says Paycor helped revenue grow. For example, it added 19% in Q3.
Worry ifPaycor's integration has not helped revenue growth or gaining new clients.
Why it matters: This growth shows that Paycor is doing well. It also shows strong demand for services.
Supportive ifManagement Solutions revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifManagement Solutions revenue growth falls below 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: This growth aligns with management's guidance and reflects ongoing earnings strength.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS grows between 7% and 9% in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth falls below 7% in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: This growth shows that management's strategy is working well in this area.
Supportive ifPEO and Insurance Solutions revenue growth is between 6% and 7% in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifPEO and Insurance Solutions revenue growth falls below 6% in fiscal 2027.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$122 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $283 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,555 loss on $10,000 · 35.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.