Paychex (PAYX)
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$119.50+0.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PAYX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers
PAYX — officer change
Dated 2026-07-21
Director — Kara Wilson: Ms. Kara Wilson decided not to stand for re-election at the Company’s annual meeting of stockholders in 2026.
Why it matters: First-quarter revenue in this segment grew 12%. Management also raised its full-year growth range to 7% to 8%.
Supportive ifFull-year PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue growth tops 8%.
Worry ifGrowth falls below 7%, or management cuts its 7% to 8% outlook.
Why it matters: Paychex launched WISE Hire and cited early results from WISE users. More proof of client use would support its AI growth plan.
Supportive ifPaychex reports more clients using WISE Hire and gives a clear measure of time saved or hiring results.
Worry ifPaychex reports low use, delays, or no measured client gains from WISE Hire.
Why it matters: Paychex reported 10% adjusted EPS growth in its first quarter. Growth above its 7% to 9% full-year range would signal stronger results.
Supportive ifBy the fiscal 2027 year-end report, adjusted diluted EPS growth is above 9%.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth is below 7%, or management cuts its 7% to 9% outlook.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $290 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,590 loss on $10,000 · 25.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.