Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Prosperity Bancshares (PB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$71.97-2.20%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.29 → 7.40 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt and capital post-mergers | A supporting condition in Prosperity Bancshares's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain capital ratios and manage debt servicing without profit margin erosion over next 4 quarters. | Intact | Capital ratios decline significantly or debt servicing pressures margins | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PB is a merger-driven regional banking growth story, not a clearly demonstrated organic-growth story. Its multi-year view is intact, but confidence has moved from high to medium as integration continues and acquired scale makes underlying growth harder to judge.
The evidence describes PB as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear cautious relative to the model. The valuation tag is justified and fragility is low, so the snapshot does not indicate that the thesis depends on unusually optimistic assumptions.
Near term, recent earnings beats and revenue growth support a steady operating picture, while merger integration remains unfinished. Management’s asset-quality focus is being tested: nonperforming assets rose from 0.34% in 2026-Q2 to 0.41% in 2026-Q3, partly due to acquired assets. The next guidance update and credit trends are important near-term checks.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on integrating acquired banks while preserving asset quality and showing growth beyond added merger scale. A guidance cut or falling rates would weigh on the setup, while continued strength among sector peers could support the banking backdrop.
PB’s multi-year view remains intact, supported by recent earnings and expansion, but integration and credit quality leave meaningful execution questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS meets or exceeds guidance |
| The bank beats earnings estimates, with Q1 EPS up 13.6% to $1.50. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $1.16 in 2026-Q2 |
Diluted EPS: $1.67 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.16 for 2026-Q2. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 6, 20261.67 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Loans and deposits grow through mergers | Prosperity Bancshares grows loans and deposits through mergers, adding $3.35 billion loans and $4.15 billion deposits in Q1 2026. | Intact | Loans or deposits fall below $23 billion or $31 billion respectively in next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.17 → $7.40 · observed estimates
$2.04B → $2.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.17 | $2,037,847,120 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.17 | $2,037,847,120 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.17 | $2,037,847,120 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.17 | $2,037,847,120 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.17 | $2,037,847,120 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.17 | $2,037,847,120 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.17 | $2,037,847,120 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.25 | $2,046,480,980 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.20 | $2,046,925,886 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.31 | $2,049,265,980 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.27 | $2,049,265,727 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.27 | $2,049,265,727 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.27 | $2,049,265,727 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.27 | $2,049,265,727 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.27 | $2,050,182,394 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.27 | $2,050,182,394 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.32 | $2,050,807,390 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.32 | $2,050,807,390 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.32 | $2,050,807,390 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.27 | $2,050,182,394 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.27 | $2,050,182,394 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.27 | $2,050,182,394 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.27 | $2,050,182,394 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.27 | $2,050,182,394 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.27 | $2,050,182,394 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.27 | $2,050,182,394 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.28 | $2,051,700,719 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.28 | $2,051,659,302 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.28 | $2,051,659,302 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.28 | $2,051,659,302 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.28 | $2,052,866,243 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.28 | $2,052,864,335 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.28 | $2,052,864,335 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.28 | $2,052,864,335 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.28 | $2,052,864,335 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.28 | $2,052,864,335 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.28 | $2,052,864,335 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.28 | $2,052,864,335 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.28 | $2,052,864,335 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.28 | $2,052,864,335 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.28 | $2,052,864,335 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.28 | $2,052,864,335 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.28 | $2,052,864,335 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.28 | $2,054,428,348 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.28 | $2,054,428,348 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.28 | $2,053,450,015 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.29 | $2,052,725,015 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.29 | $2,052,725,015 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.29 | $2,052,725,015 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.29 | $2,052,725,015 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.29 | $2,054,064,726 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.29 | $2,054,064,726 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.29 | $2,054,064,726 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.29 | $2,054,064,726 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.29 | $2,054,064,726 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.30 | $2,053,981,642 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.29 | $2,053,979,142 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.29 | $2,053,979,142 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.29 | $2,055,791,225 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.30 | $2,056,609,634 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.30 | $2,056,631,336 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.30 | $2,056,634,634 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.30 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.30 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.30 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.30 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.31 | $2,058,045,467 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.31 | $2,058,042,966 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.35 | $2,048,504,167 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.40 | $2,041,570,630 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.40 | $2,043,441,547 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.40 | $2,043,441,547 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.40 | $2,043,441,547 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.40 | $2,043,441,547 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.40 | $2,043,441,547 | 12 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.