Prosperity Bancshares (PB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.81+0.54%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PB — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-01
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. In connection with the Transactions, on the Closing Date, Prosperity assumed Stellar’s obligations with respect to approximately $2.17 billion in obligations issued by the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas to Stellar Bank.
Why it matters: Finishing the repurchase program shows trust in the company's value and spending plans.
Supportive ifManagement completes repurchase of 5% of shares by the end of 2026.
Worry ifRepurchase program is not completed by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: This earnings report will show how the company is performing amid sector challenges. It will provide insights into revenue and profit trends.
Watch forRevenue growth year over year exceeds the sector's median of 13%.
Also watch forRevenue growth year over year falls below the sector's median of 13%.
Why it matters: Loan growth shows strong demand and good integration of recent mergers.
Supportive ifLoans, excluding Warehouse Purchase Program, increase by more than 12% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLoan growth falls below 12% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong deposit growth helps the bank's funding and overall stability.
Supportive ifDeposits increase by more than 14.6% year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifDeposit growth falls below 14.6% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in loans and deposits is key for Prosperity's finances after the mergers.
Supportive ifLoans and deposits grow by more than 15% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifLoans and deposits grow less than 10% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings will show how well Prosperity is combining recent mergers and handling costs.
Watch forEarnings per share are over $1.50. This shows strong performance after the mergers.
Also watch forEarnings per share are below $1.16. This suggests problems with integration.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a weakening position in the financial sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 12% over the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 12%.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key for Prosperity's earnings. Slower growth may signal issues.
Worry ifLoans grow less than 10% year over year in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifLoans grow at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher efficiency ratio means costs are rising compared to income. This affects profits.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio exceeds 50% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifThe efficiency ratio is under 50%.
Why it matters: Slower stock repurchases may show less confidence in how money is spent.
Worry ifStock repurchases fall below 200,000 shares in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifStock repurchases remain at or above 200,000 shares.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $208 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,492 loss on $10,000 · 14.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.