Pitney Bowes, Inc. (PBI)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.40-1.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -74.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PBI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-25
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 23, 2026 (the “ Amendment Date ”), Pitney Bowes Inc. (the “ Company ”), and certain other subsidiaries of the Company, entered into an amendment (the “ Amendment ”) to its Credit Agreement, dated as of February 7, 2025 (as amended prior to the date hereof and as further amended by the Amendment, the “ Credit Agreement ”), among the Company, the Loan Parties party thereto, the Lenders and Issuing Banks party thereto and Bank of America, N.A.,…
Why it matters: Changes to the credit agreement can affect money management. They can also impact future projects.
Watch forA press release confirms good terms or new funding from the credit agreement.
Also watch forA press release shows bad terms or limits in the credit agreement.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows better cash generation. This helps support future investments and returns to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $50 million in Q2 2026, showing strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $40 million in Q2 2026, indicating cash generation issues.
Why it matters: Enhancing cash flow is crucial for financial health. It supports future investments and stability.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations rises by more than 15% in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls or grows less than 5% in Q2.
Why it matters: More share buybacks would show good use of money and trust in the company's health.
Supportive ifTotal share buybacks are over $186 million in 2026.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases fall below $186 million in 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $338 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,817 loss on $10,000 · 28.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Falling below this level shows trouble making cash, even with recent gains.
Worry ifFree cash flow for 2026 falls below $360 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow for 2026 exceeds $410 million.
Why it matters: Lower adjusted EPS shows trouble in raising operating income and cash flow. EPS is a key profit measure.
Worry ifQ2 2026 adjusted EPS reported below $0.47.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 adjusted EPS reported at or above $0.47.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show that the company has good cash flow. It also shows that management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new increase in the quarterly dividend. It is now over $0.10 per share.
Worry ifManagement holds the dividend at $0.10 per share or decreases it.
Why it matters: Revenue trends are key to understanding if the company can stabilize its sales. A decline would show ongoing challenges.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue was below $477 million. This shows revenue is still going down.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue was above $477 million. This suggests sales are getting better.
Why it matters: Stable revenue is important for growth. It shows the company is facing challenges.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue shows no decline year over year and ideally grows by at least 5%.
Worry ifQ2 revenue declines year over year by more than 5%.
Why it matters: A higher adjusted EBIT means better operating income. It also shows better cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBIT for Q2 exceeds $130 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBIT for Q2 falls below $130 million.
Why it matters: Reducing debt shows strong capital management. It helps keep finances stable.
Supportive ifDebt reduced by more than $100 million in Q3.
Worry ifDebt remains unchanged or increases in Q3.
Why it matters: If revenue stabilizes or grows, it shows progress for management's goals.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth turns positive or stabilizes year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: The performance of Presort Services is important. It helps us see how the company can stabilize revenue.
Worry ifPresort Services revenue shows less than an 8% decline year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifPresort Services revenue drops more than 10% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income is a key goal for management. It shows they control costs well.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifQ2 operating income declines or grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower free cash flow would show problems in making cash and running efficiently.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q2 is below $44 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow for Q2 is above $44 million.
Why it matters: Changes in credit ratings affect how much it costs to borrow money.
Supportive ifFitch upgrades Pitney Bowes' credit rating from BB- to BB or higher.
Worry ifFitch downgrades the credit rating below BB-.
Why it matters: A smaller drop in revenue shows the company is stabilizing in a tough market. It shows they can handle challenges.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue decline not worse than -2% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue decline exceeds -2% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted EBIT shows the company is managing costs well. It means they are making more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBIT for 2026 exceeds $475 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBIT for 2026 falls below $445 million.
Why it matters: A drop in cash from operations would indicate cash flow issues. This could affect future investments and growth.
Worry ifCash from operations is still above $150 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operations falls below $150 million.
Why it matters: Ongoing share repurchases signal confidence in the company's value. It can support share price stability.
Supportive ifShare repurchases total $50 million or more in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases drop below $30 million in the next quarter.