Paccar (PCAR)
NASDAQIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-08
$122.50-1.57%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $122.50. As of 2026-07-09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $122 PCAR trades at 26× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median — but our blended $103 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $125–$139. Note: our $103 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($125–$139). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $138 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$125.00 – $139.00 (median $128.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-07-02
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 31% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 7.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.22/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $128.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $192.36 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $203.19 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $20.81 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $62.94 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $112.92 | 17.6 | 7.42 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $126.74 | 20.4 | 6.20 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $107.03 | 22.8 | 4.70 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $46.43 | 0.9 | 52.67 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $96.66 | 20.6 | 4.70 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $42.53 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $112.89 | 24.0 | 4.70 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $109.80 | 22.8 | 4.82 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $192.76 | 20.4 | 9.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $171.56 | 22.8 | 7.53 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $57.59 | 0.9 | 65.34 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $154.95 | 20.6 | 7.53 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $180.96 | 24.0 | 7.53 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $254.93 | 20.4 | 12.47 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $197.47 | 22.8 | 8.67 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $66.29 | 0.9 | 75.20 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $178.35 | 20.6 | 8.67 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $208.29 | 24.0 | 8.67 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.