Paccar (PCAR)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$124.70+0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PCAR
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $125 PCAR trades at 26× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median — but our blended $112 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $119–$148. Note: our $112 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($119–$148). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $135.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $77.20 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $161.08 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $21.30 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$119.00 – $148.00 (median $131.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-09-04
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 33% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 5.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.22/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $64.23 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $155.58 | 15.4 | 11.25 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $127.49 | 21.5 | 5.94 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $101.84 | 21.4 | 4.76 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $54.67 | 1.0 | 52.72 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $108.13 | 22.7 | 4.76 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $43.54 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $104.03 | 21.4 | 4.86 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $168.20 | 21.5 | 7.84 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $178.46 | 21.4 | 8.34 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $72.24 | 1.0 | 69.67 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $189.48 | 22.7 | 8.34 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $202.34 | 21.5 | 9.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $213.94 | 21.4 | 10.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $86.60 | 1.0 | 83.52 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $227.16 | 22.7 | 10.00 | Analyst | medium |