Paccar (PCAR)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$104.50-1.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PCAR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 46 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PCAR — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 27, 2026 PACCAR Inc (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter of 2026 and announcing that it would hold a conference call with securities analysts to discuss third quarter 2026 earnings to be held that same day as more fully described in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall…
Why it matters: Parts revenue rose, but nine-month profit fell. Higher profit would show that growth is reaching the bottom line.
Supportive ifPACCAR Parts pretax profit for the full year tops $1.25 billion. That is above the 2025 nine-month total of $1.25 billion.
Worry ifFull-year PACCAR Parts pretax profit stays below the 2025 full-year level of $1.67 billion.
Why it matters: Management sees fleet demand staying firm next year. Sales below its range would challenge that view.
Supportive if2027 U.S. and Canada Class 8 retail sales reach at least 240,000 trucks, the low end of management's range.
Worry if2027 U.S. and Canada Class 8 retail sales fall below 240,000 trucks.
Why it matters: PFS profit rose, but its nine-month loan loss costs also rose. Lower costs would support its earnings growth.
Supportive ifFor the full year, PFS sets aside less than $112 million for losses on receivables. That is the 2026 nine-month level.
Worry ifThe provision rises above $112 million for the full year.
Why it matters: The new platform may add service revenue and help fleet owners work better. A late launch would delay that test.
Supportive ifKenworth and Peterbilt start offering PACCAR Connect trucks in early 2027, as planned.
Worry ifPACCAR says the launch has moved past early 2027, or reports no launch by then.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $230 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,626 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management lowered its 2026 spending ranges in the third quarter. Final results will show how much it invested in its plans.
Watch forFull-year capital spending is $650–$700 million and R&D is $440–$460 million or higher.
Also watch forFull-year capital spending is below $650 million or R&D is below $440 million.