Paccar (PCAR)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$124.70+0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PCAR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
PCAR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026 PACCAR Inc (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 and announcing that it would hold a conference call with securities analysts to discuss first quarter 2026 earnings to be held that same day as more fully described in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall n…
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing. This is amid challenges.
Watch forEarnings are more than 5% above what analysts expected.
Also watch forEarnings fall short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: A smooth CEO change is key for company stability and direction.
Watch forManagement gives a clear update on the CEO change process and timeline.
Also watch forNo news or signs of trouble during the CEO change.
Why it matters: More electric trucks show PACCAR cares about new ideas and market needs. This can bring in new customers.
Supportive ifLook for news on new electric truck models or more production.
Worry ifNo new announcements or delays in electric truck launches.
Why it matters: Expanding electric truck offerings aligns with market trends and can boost sales. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifLaunch of new electric truck models such as DAF XG Electric and Peterbilt Freedom 250.
Worry ifNo new electric truck models announced by the end of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$105 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $222 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,555 loss on $10,000 · 15.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Steady R&D spending is key for new ideas and staying competitive. It shows a focus on future tech.
Supportive ifR&D expenses reach $450 million in 2026.
Worry ifR&D expenses drop below $400 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Higher R&D spending could lead to better products and market position. This is a key priority for management.
Supportive ifManagement announces an increase in R&D spending by more than 10%.
Worry ifR&D spending remains flat or decreases.
Why it matters: Higher capital investments show PACCAR wants to grow and innovate. This helps long-term profits.
Supportive ifCapital investments reach or exceed $700 million in 2026.
Worry ifCapital investments will be less than $600 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Sticking to capital spending plans shows a focus on growth. It helps long-term goals.
Supportive ifCapital spending hits $700 million in 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending drops below $650 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Managing the CEO change is key for stability. Updates can show how leadership will continue and the company's plans.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CEO or confirmation of the transition plan before Q3 2026.
Also watch forNo updates or clarity on the CEO transition by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows strong performance and good cost management. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 exceeds $600 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 falls below $500 million.
Why it matters: Earnings that are better than expected can boost investor confidence. This can help stock performance.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share exceeds $1.20.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share falls below $1.00.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue shows problems in turning investments into growth. It may mean less demand or issues with operations.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $6.1 billion, which is worse than a 10% decline from Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Stronger PACCAR Parts revenue shows ongoing demand. It also shows good management of parts distribution.
Supportive ifPACCAR Parts revenue reported above $1.75 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifPACCAR Parts revenue falls below $1.70 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher capital investments show a strong commitment to growth. They also show innovation in truck production.
Supportive ifWatch for PACCAR's capital investments over $750 million in 2026.
Worry ifWatch for capital investments under $700 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Watch for new electric models. They show PACCAR's focus on electric vehicles.
Supportive ifPACCAR will launch more electric truck models in 2026.
Worry ifNo new electric truck models are introduced in 2026.
Why it matters: A decline in net income could indicate weakening demand or rising costs in the truck market.
Worry ifPACCAR reports net income above $590 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income reported below $590 million in Q3 2026.