Paccar (PCAR)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$124.70+0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth of at least 7% in FY26: rev +1.0% vs 7.0%.
Paccar leads in medium- and heavy-duty trucks with strong brands. It plans $725-$775 million in capital spending and $450-$500 million in R&D for 2026. Analysts expect about 7% revenue growth and EPS of $5.69 in 2026. Profit margins and cash flow remain solid, supporting steady returns.
Truck demand could weaken, hurting sales and profits. Capital and R&D spending may not translate into growth. Recent earnings missed expectations, signaling risks to execution and margins.
The stock price is about 21% above our estimate of intrinsic value and 19% below the median analyst price target. The market expects roughly 7% revenue growth. Our view is more cautious on growth and margin expansion.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures fall below $725 million or exceed $775 million in FY26
Breaks if: Profit margins decline significantly below recent levels over next 4 quarters
R&D spending falls below $450 million or exceeds $500 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable, mature company in the industrial sector. The current thesis state is weakened, reflecting recent mixed financial performance and a shift from robust to fragile conditions.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly aligned with current performance. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic or pessimistic at this time.
Fundamentals are expected to remain neutral in the near term, with management focused on capital projects and R&D spending. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, despite a history of recent misses.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT. Positive earnings and guidance from these companies could provide a favorable tailwind, while negative trends could further weaken PCAR's position.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change indicates the reason to own PCAR has weakened. The latest earnings beat and strong parts revenue growth do not offset this decline in standing.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PCAR's performance will depend heavily on sector dynamics and management execution. Not investment advice.