Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
PDF Solutions, Inc. (PDFS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$34.52-13.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.65 → 1.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PDFS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand market adoption of Exensio and eProbe products | Market adoption of key products like Exensio and eProbe could drive future growth. | Improving | No meaningful adoption growth or product setbacks reported | Qualitative adoption growth confirmed (Q1-Q3 beats, 20% growth target) Q1, Q2, and Q3 2026 earnings beats; management targets 20% 2026 revenue growth; Morgan Stanley initiates Overweight. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PDFS is a growth-focused technology business with robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed, and risk is high.
The valuation is expensive relative to peers, despite a model comparison that labels PDFS cheap versus peers; the evidence also shows a 0.76 premium versus peers. The expectations gap is nearly zero, suggesting the valuation broadly reflects current expectations rather than leaving much room for a meaningful expectations surprise.
Near term, revenue growth is tracking close to management’s 20% annual goal, and recent earnings reports were positive. Margins remain below long-term targets and slipped between the first and second quarters of 2026, while product adoption efforts lack specific revenue or volume measures.
The multi-year thesis depends on sustaining roughly 20% annual revenue growth while making progress toward margin targets and expanding adoption of Exensio and eProbe. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easier interest rates or stabilization among large technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, PDFS has a strong growth record and an intact thesis, but the expensive valuation, mixed margin progress, and high risk leave execution important. The evidence is medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “He continued, “In the quarter, we had major customer wins for our secureWISE system, for our DirectScan system, and for our Exensio product and services.” “To help the industry address these challenges, PDF Solutions further solidified its transformation from an analytics provider to an execution platform spanning the semiconductor ecosystem, specifically through the acquisition of secureWISE and the license of the Tiber AI Studio code, contract bookings that included Sapience Manufacturing Hub Enterprise and Exensio Enterprise, announcing Exensio Scalable Analytics, and deployment of eProbe into manufacturing.”
Improve operating margin towards 27% long-term target | The company is working to reach long-term margin targets of 27%. | Improving | Operating margin remains below 10% by FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We continue to make progress towards our long-term model target margins of 77% for gross margin and 27% for operating margin.”” Operating income was $8.286 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve at least 20% annual revenue growth | A primary condition in PDF Solutions, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=20% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 19.64% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=20% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 202619.642826 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Based on actual results through the third quarter and the pipeline for the fourth quarter, we reaffirm our 20% annual revenue growth target for 2026.”” “Taking into account these positive factors, we reaffirm our 20% annual revenue growth target for 2026.”” Revenue was $68.334 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.55 → $1.65 · observed estimates
$0.32B → $0.32B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.55 | $315,866,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.55 | $315,866,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.55 | $315,866,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.55 | $315,858,975 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.55 | $315,858,975 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.55 | $315,866,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.55 | $315,866,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.55 | $315,858,975 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.55 | $315,858,975 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.55 | $315,866,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.55 | $315,866,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.55 | $315,866,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.56 | $316,053,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.55 | $315,858,975 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.56 | $316,087,180 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.57 | $316,233,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.57 | $316,233,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.56 | $316,087,180 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.63 | $318,403,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.56 | $316,087,180 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.56 | $316,087,180 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.56 | $316,087,180 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.56 | $316,087,180 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.56 | $316,087,180 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.56 | $316,087,180 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.56 | $316,087,180 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.63 | $318,330,567 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.65 | $318,756,114 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.65 | $318,286,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.65 | $318,286,537 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.65 | $318,286,537 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.