Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Palladyne AI Corp. (PDYN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.19-0.93%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PDYN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow improves to about $2 million in FY25 | The company plans to improve cash flow and net income. | Broken | Free cash flow remains negative or below $1.6 million in FY25 | Free cash flow: $-11.024M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-11,024,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established compounder: the company is loss-making and carries high risk. The long-term thesis is on watch, with momentum improving but recent results still weak relative to its industry cohort.
PDYN trades at an expensive valuation versus peers, with valuation supported mainly by future opportunity rather than current earnings. The evidence suggests expectations are ahead of what the fundamentals currently support, while the overall priced-in fragility is classified as low.
Near-term results face a meaningful execution test after consecutive earnings misses, although management reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance and revenue rose from $1.7 million in 2025-Q1 to $5.8 million in 2026-Q2. Operating cash burn increased from about $8.5 million in 2026-Q1 to about $10.2 million in 2026-Q2, so delivering the full-year guidance while keeping burn within its stated range remains important.
The multi-year case depends on converting backlog into revenue, meeting the 2026 revenue guidance, and expanding the Israel Aerospace Industries partnership. A guidance cut would weaken the case; lower interest rates or steadier results and guidance from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop, but neither would resolve company-specific execution risks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PDYN offers a high-risk growth thesis whose progress depends on revenue delivery and partnership execution, while losses and cash use remain central concerns. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans to improve cash flow and net income. |
| Broken |
| Net loss worsens beyond -$12.6 million in next 4 quarters |
Net income: $-12.326M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net loss narrows vs -$12.6 million in 2026-Q1. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-12,326,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand partnership with Israel Aerospace Industries | It has a strong partnership with Israel Aerospace Industries. | Improving | Partnership stalls or reverses in next 4 quarters | Qualitative: MOU signed Jun 2026, no stall reported June 2026 MOU with IAI grants exclusive U.S. rights to manufacture loitering munitions. No subsequent news indicates partnership stall or reversal. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We also signed our partnership with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) during the quarter, which gives us exclusive U.S. rights to Americanize, manufacture, integrate and market IAI’s HARPY, HAROP and Mini HARPY loitering munitions to the Department of War.” “Since signing, we have been working alongside IAI Exhibit 99.1 on the strategy and planning for bringing the Department of War on board with these systems, including Americanization requirements and manufacturing readiness.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches about $25.5 million in FY26 | Palladyne aims to grow revenue to about $25.5 million in 2026. | Improving | Revenue falls below $24 million in FY26 | Revenue: $5.783M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$25.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20265,783,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We also signed our partnership with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) during the quarter, which gives us exclusive U.S. rights to Americanize, manufacture, integrate and market IAI’s HARPY, HAROP and Mini HARPY loitering munitions to the Department of War.” “Since signing, we have been working alongside IAI Exhibit 99.1 on the strategy and planning for bringing the Department of War on board with these systems, including Americanization requirements and manufacturing readiness.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.72 → $-0.77 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.71 | $41,175,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.71 | $41,175,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.71 | $41,175,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.71 | $41,175,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.71 | $41,175,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.71 | $41,175,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.71 | $41,175,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.71 | $41,175,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.71 | $41,175,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.71 | $41,175,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.71 | $41,175,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.73 | $41,174,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.70 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.72 | $41,175,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.77 | $40,018,000 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.