Palladyne AI Corp. (PDYN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.19-0.93%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PDYN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 54.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
PDYN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Palladyne AI Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, and certain other information. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Current Report under this
Why it matters: The company remains loss-making, and its losses grew in Q2. The next report can show if sales growth is easing that strain.
Watch forOn Nov. 11, Q3 revenue exceeds $5.8 million and the operating loss is smaller than Q2's $13.4 million.
Also watch forOn Nov. 11, Q3 revenue is $5.8 million or less and the operating loss is $13.4 million or more.
Why it matters: The exercises test SwarmOS and Gremlin-X with military users. A new contract would show that the demos can lead to paid work.
Supportive ifBy March 2027, Palladyne reports taking part in the five invited exercises. It names at least one new paid contract tied to them.
Worry ifBy March 2027, Palladyne reports missing any of the five exercises, or reports no new paid contract tied to them.
Why it matters: Management tied full-year guidance to backlog and faster growth in the second half. Q3 revenue tests that plan.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue rises from Q2's $5.8 million, and management keeps its $24 million to $27 million 2026 revenue range.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is $5.8 million or less, or management cuts its $24 million to $27 million 2026 range.
Why it matters: Palladyne has exclusive U.S. rights, but the deal still needs U.S. customer and factory plans. A named program would show progress beyond the partnership.
Supportive ifThe company names a U.S. customer, contract, or funded program for HARPY, HAROP, or Mini HARPY, with U.S. build steps stated.
Worry ifA later company update reports no U.S. customer, contract, or funded program, or says the U.S. build plan has stopped.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$225 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $809 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,797 loss on $10,000 · 68.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Backlog rose to $24.6 million after about $13 million in new Q2 awards. New awards help replace work as sales are booked.
Supportive ifQ3 new contract awards exceed the $13.0 million reported for Q2. Reported backlog rises above $24.6 million.
Worry ifQ3 new awards are below $13.0 million and reported backlog falls below $24.6 million.