Palladyne AI Corp. (PDYN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.71+0.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PDYN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 159.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PDYN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Palladyne AI Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, and certain other information. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Current Report under this
Why it matters: A backlog over $30 million shows strong contract wins and future revenue.
Supportive ifBacklog reported at or above $30 million by the end of Q3.
Worry ifBacklog was below $25 million. This shows a slowdown in contract wins.
Why it matters: Updates on this partnership could mean new contracts and growth in defense.
Watch forLook for new contracts or projects from the partnership.
Also watch forNo updates or contracts were announced about the partnership in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial for sustaining operations and growth.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is above -$10 million in future quarters.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is still below -$10 million.
Why it matters: Net income trends will show if the company is making more money. This impacts investor trust.
Worry ifNet income improves to less negative than -$12 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifNet income remains negative and worsens from -$12 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$335 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $847 loss on $10,000 · 8.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,971 loss on $10,000 · 59.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means better financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow turns positive, showing a reduction in cash burn.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is still negative or getting worse. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: Strong growth will show that management's plans are working.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grew over 63% from last quarter. This shows good backlog conversion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is under 50% from last quarter. This raises worries about backlog.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is critical for the company’s financial health. It will show if management is addressing cash burn.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 cash flow from operations turns positive.
Worry ifQ3 2026 cash flow from operations remains negative.
Why it matters: Growing backlog shows demand is steady. This helps future revenue.
Supportive ifBacklog exceeds $24.6 million in the next reporting period.
Worry ifBacklog falls below $24 million.
Why it matters: Turning backlog into revenue is important for reaching the 2026 revenue goal.
Supportive ifMost of the $24.6 million backlog will become revenue in 12-18 months.
Worry ifLess than 50% of backlog recognized as revenue within 18 months.
Why it matters: Lower cash burn will indicate better cost management and support future growth plans.
Supportive ifOperating cash burn in Q3 is under $9 million. This shows better cost control.
Worry ifOperating cash burn in Q3 is over $10 million. This shows ongoing money issues.
Why it matters: New contracts will boost backlog and support revenue growth. This is key to achieving full-year guidance.
Supportive ifNew contract awards in Q3 exceed $13 million, indicating strong demand.
Worry ifNew contract awards in Q3 fall below $10 million, suggesting weaker demand.
Why it matters: Updates on revenue guidance will show how the company is growing.
Watch forManagement confirms full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $24M to $27M.
Also watch forManagement has cut revenue guidance to less than $24M.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows better profits and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet income improves year-over-year for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifNet income keeps going down each year.
Why it matters: The MOU could lead to significant contracts, impacting revenue and growth.
Watch forThe company secures a contract to manufacture and market IAI systems to the U.S. government.
Also watch forThe MOU does not lead to any contracts or further developments.