Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Phillips Edison & Company (PECO)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.90-0.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.83 → 0.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PECO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share near $0.32 in Q1 2026 | Management raised net income per share guidance to $0.81 for 2026. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.31 in Q1 2026 | Dividend per share: $0.33 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.32 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 27, 20260.3316 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PECO is a retail real estate business with a steady-operations profile and some growth from leasing and acquisitions. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance strong and confidence in the evidence high, though management execution is mixed in some areas.
The valuation is tagged as justified, and the model shows expectations broadly aligned with the evidence. PECO trades at a modest premium versus peers, so the setup does not point to a clear valuation discount; no fragility warning is present.
Near term, recent operating results are strong: third-quarter same-center NOI rose 5.3% and Core FFO rose 11.3% year over year. Occupancy was nearly unchanged, while renewal rent spreads improved; acquisitions and asset sales show portfolio activity, but delivery against growth priorities remains mixed. The near-term miss risk is described as low, though a guidance cut after the recent raise would damage credibility.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on continued growth in same-center NOI and FFO, with leasing gains that do not come at the cost of occupancy. A reversal of raised guidance would be a significant negative; Fed rate cuts could support the real estate sector, while weakness among major sector peers could remove that support.
PECO’s 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, backed by strong recent financial performance, improved rent spreads, and a valuation that appears justified. The key tests are sustained operating growth and whether management can maintain guidance and execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Phillips Edison & Company's published investment case. The stated target is ~3.5%. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 3.0% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 71.76% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~3.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 202671.755883 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income per share guidance raised to $0.81 for 2026 | Management raised net income per share guidance to $0.81 for 2026. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $0.74 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.49 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.81. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 20260.49 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth of at least $450 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Phillips Edison & Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= $450 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $400 million in FY26 | Revenue: $193.088M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $450 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 2026193,088,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.77 → $0.84 · observed estimates
$0.81B → $0.81B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.77 | $805,688,800 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.77 | $805,688,800 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.77 | $805,688,800 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.84 | $804,299,045 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.84 | $804,299,045 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.71 | $809,728,850 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.71 | $809,728,850 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.71 | $809,728,850 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.71 | $810,290,380 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.71 | $810,290,380 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.71 | $810,290,380 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.71 | $810,290,380 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.84 | $807,861,199 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.84 | $808,360,310 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.84 | $808,360,310 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.84 | $808,360,310 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.84 | $808,360,310 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.84 | $808,360,310 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.84 | $808,360,310 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.84 | $808,360,310 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.84 | $808,360,310 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.84 | $808,360,310 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.84 | $804,599,224 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.84 | $804,599,224 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.84 | $804,599,224 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.84 | $806,267,684 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.84 | $806,267,684 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.84 | $805,523,599 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.84 | $805,523,599 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.84 | $805,523,599 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.83 | $803,230,508 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.83 | $806,325,945 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.83 | $806,325,945 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.83 | $806,325,945 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.83 | $806,325,945 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.83 | $806,325,945 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.83 | $806,325,945 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.83 | $806,325,945 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.83 | $806,325,945 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.83 | $806,325,945 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.83 | $806,325,945 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.84 | $804,895,070 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.83 | $804,916,600 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.83 | $804,241,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.83 | $804,241,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.83 | $804,241,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.84 | $804,241,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.84 | $802,090,623 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.84 | $802,090,623 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.84 | $802,090,623 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.84 | $802,090,623 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.84 | $802,090,623 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.84 | $802,090,623 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.84 | $802,090,623 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.84 | $802,090,623 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.84 | $802,090,623 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.84 | $805,458,334 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.84 | $805,458,334 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.84 | $805,458,334 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.84 | $805,398,001 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.84 | $805,398,001 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.84 | $805,398,001 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.84 | $805,398,001 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.84 | $804,839,445 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.84 | $804,839,445 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.84 | $805,105,223 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.84 | $805,105,223 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.84 | $805,105,223 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.84 | $805,105,223 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.84 | $810,842,626 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.84 | $806,283,223 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.