Phillips Edison & Company (PECO)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.96-0.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PECO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
PECO — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
Why it matters: A drop in occupancy may show less demand for PECO's properties.
Worry ifThe occupancy rate for leased properties is below 97.1% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifLeased portfolio occupancy is at or above 97.1% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in net income guidance show what management thinks about future profits.
Supportive ifUpdated guidance for net income per share exceeds $0.81.
Worry ifUpdated guidance for net income per share falls below $0.79.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong performance. It also shows confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifCore FFO per share guidance raised to above $2.73 for full year 2026.
Worry ifCore FFO per share guidance remains at or below $2.73 for full year 2026.
Why it matters: A successful buyback could show management's confidence. It might help the stock price.
Supportive ifStock prices went up after the share buyback program was announced.
Worry ifStock price declines despite the announcement of a share buyback program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$70 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $141 loss on $10,000 · 1.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,218 loss on $10,000 · 12.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is re-accelerating or not. This is key for understanding the company's position in a maturing sector.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Steady dividend growth shows the company is doing well. It shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThey announced monthly dividends over $0.1083 per share for the coming months.
Worry ifAnnouncement of no increase or a decrease in monthly dividends.
Why it matters: If the real estate sector grows, it may help PECO's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up again, above 3% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth slows down, below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Weak revenue growth may show problems in retail. It could also mean more competition.
Worry ifRevenue growth was below 5% year-over-year for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth exceeds 5% year-over-year for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Core FFO growth is key for PECO's earnings outlook. A miss could signal weakness.
Worry ifCore FFO per diluted share growth below 6.2% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifCore FFO per diluted share growth meets or exceeds 6.2% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Same-center NOI growth shows how well PECO manages its properties. A miss may indicate issues.
Worry ifSame-center NOI growth is below 3.7% compared to last year in Q3.
Less concerning ifSame-center NOI growth meets or exceeds 3.7% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Acquisitions are crucial for growth. A shortfall may hurt PECO's expansion plans.
Worry ifTotal gross acquisitions below $500 million for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal gross acquisitions meet or exceed $500 million for the full year 2026.