PEDEVCO Corp (PED)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.34-0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
PEDEVCO aims for $60-$70M adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Revenue is guided near $45.5M. Operating income improved to $6.7M in Q1 2026. Capital spending will stay between $16M and $20M.
The company is loss-making and volatile. Recent selloff cut price 32%. Earnings estimates have fallen sharply. Key officers left recently.
Price is about 34% above our fair value near $8.6. Analysts expect 42% revenue growth, which is optimistic given recent volatility.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $60M in FY 2026
Deliver full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $60 to $70 million, driven by production growth and operational efficiencies.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity with a focus on potential recovery. The current thesis state is cautious, reflecting recent volatility and mixed management execution.
The market appears to have priced in an elevated valuation, suggesting a premium compared to peers. This premium may not be justified given the company's loss-making status and the turbulent sector backdrop.
Management is on track to achieve its Adjusted EBITDA target for 2026, but operating income and cash flow improvements are mixed. The company's financial performance has recently improved, but it remains sensitive to external pressures.
The future trajectory hinges on inflation trends, guidance updates from management, and performance from sector leaders. Any cuts in guidance could significantly impact sentiment and estimates.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a strong growth trajectory. The company reiterated its goal to achieve $60-$70 million in adjusted EBITDA for FY 2026. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $4.3 million in 2025-Q1 to $21.5 million in 2026-Q1 and was $18.7 million in 2026-Q2, a 516% increase year-over-year. Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance of $60 to $70 million Adjusted EBITDA, and the trajectory is delivering toward this target.
“We are confident we will meet or exceed our full-year guidance of ... $60 to $70 million of Adjusted EBITDA.”
“We are confident we will meet or exceed our full-year guidance of 6,500 to 7,000 Boe per day, and $60 to $70 million of Adjusted EBITDA.”
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $20M or falls below $16M in FY 2026
Manage capital expenditures within the range of $16 million to $20 million for fiscal year 2026 to support development plans.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management maintained full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance between $16 million and $20 million. The company is executing a development program expected to add material production in late 2026 and into 2027, consistent with this CAPEX range.
“We expect this program to add a material amount of production in late 2026 continuing into 2027.”
“Full-year 2026 guidance for net capital expenditures of $16 million to $20 million.”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $0 in any quarter after Q1 2026
Management aims to improve operating income, which was positive in 2026-Q1 after several negative quarters.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $45M in FY 2026
Deliver full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $60 to $70 million, driven by production growth and operational efficiencies.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $4.3 million in 2025-Q1 to $21.5 million in 2026-Q1 and was $18.7 million in 2026-Q2, a 516% increase year-over-year. Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance of $60 to $70 million Adjusted EBITDA, and the trajectory is delivering toward this target.
“We are confident we will meet or exceed our full-year guidance of ... $60 to $70 million of Adjusted EBITDA.”
“We are confident we will meet or exceed our full-year guidance of 6,500 to 7,000 Boe per day, and $60 to $70 million of Adjusted EBITDA.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PED's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and deliver on its financial targets. Not investment advice.