Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
PEDEVCO Corp (PED)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.87-2.24%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.19 → 1.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PED yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $60-$70M Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2026 | PEDEVCO aims for $60-$70M adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $60M in FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PED is a high-risk, energy-sector growth story rather than an established, profitable compounder. Its multi-year view is intact, with production growth supporting the case, while earnings quality remains weak and management execution has been volatile.
The evidence describes PED’s valuation as carrying a durable premium to peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral. The premium is viewed as justified, but confidence in that assessment is low; the recent valuation measure also fell. The evidence does not provide enough detail to describe the valuation as cheap, fair, or expensive overall.
Near-term, management has reiterated its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA goal of $60 million to $70 million, after reporting $40.2 million for the first half. Production has grown sharply year over year, and management plans to participate in more than 20 wells to support output in late 2026 and 2027. Risks include the recent earnings miss, litigation, a CEO transition, and the possibility of a guidance cut; the evidence also flags erratic earnings results.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued production growth and delivery against the 2026 EBITDA goal while capital spending stays disciplined. In the near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup, while continued strong earnings and higher guidance from energy-sector peers could sustain a favorable sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PED’s production growth and sector tailwind support an intact thesis, but losses and execution risks make progress dependent on meeting guidance and sustaining development. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in PEDEVCO Corp's published investment case. The stated target is $16M to $20M. |
| Intact |
| CAPEX exceeds $20M or falls below $16M in FY 2026 |
Capital expenditures: $3.532M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $16M to $20M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20263,532,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income positive and improving | Operating income improved to $6.7M in Q1 2026. | Intact | Operating income falls below $0 in any quarter after Q1 2026 | Operating income: $15.358M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $6.7M in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 202615,358,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $45.5M for FY 2026 | A primary condition in PEDEVCO Corp's published investment case. The stated target is ~$45.5M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $45M in FY 2026 | Revenue: $46.113M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$45.5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202646,113,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.81 → $1.19 · observed estimates
$0.13B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.81 | $129,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.10 | $129,699,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.10 | $129,699,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.10 | $129,699,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.10 | $129,699,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.10 | $129,699,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.10 | $129,699,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.19 | $141,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.