PEDEVCO Corp (PED)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.34-0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PED
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 83.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 68.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PED — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 13, 2026, PEDEVCO Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
Why it matters: Higher net income shows better operations. It also means better cost management.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported above $17.5 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $17.5 million.
Why it matters: A larger loss may show problems with hedging and hurt overall finances.
Worry ifNet loss on derivative contracts is more than $31.3 million.
Less concerning ifNet loss on derivative contracts is less than $31.3 million.
Why it matters: Completion of this well could boost production and support future growth plans.
Supportive ifFinishing the drilled but uncompleted well leads to more production.
Worry ifCompletion delays or failure to increase production from the well.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong financial results and growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches or exceeds $60 million for FY 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $60 million for FY 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$292 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $744 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,494 loss on $10,000 · 44.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better sector performance can help PEDEVCO and other companies. This may change stock prices.
Supportive ifSector performance gets better. It moves from a negative score to neutral or positive.
Worry ifSector performance gets worse. It has a deeper negative score.
Why it matters: More production from this area shows the development program works.
Supportive ifProduction from the DJ Basin rises a lot in late 2026.
Worry ifProduction from the DJ Basin does not increase as expected in late 2026.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows effective capital management and supports growth plans.
Supportive ifCapital spending stays between $16 million and $20 million for FY 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending goes over $20 million for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Steady production shows efficiency. It also helps revenue grow.
Supportive ifAverage daily production was over 6,500 Boe/d for Q3.
Worry ifAverage daily production was below 6,500 Boe/d for Q3.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision may change borrowing costs and funding for PEDEVCO.
Watch forThe FOMC raised interest rates. This makes it more expensive for PEDEVCO to borrow.
Also watch forFOMC keeps or lowers interest rates, which lowers borrowing costs.
Why it matters: This would indicate the company is on track to meet its full-year EBITDA goal of $60-$70M.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA is $15 million or more.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA is less than $15 million.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it could signal a positive shift in the energy sector.
Supportive ifRevenue growth over three years is more than 2%. This will show in upcoming earnings.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth remains at or below 2%.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show strong progress towards the full-year goal of $60-$70 million.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was $30 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $30 million.
Why it matters: More production would help grow revenue. It would also support the development plan.
Supportive ifProduction increases from new wells drilled in late 2026.
Worry ifProduction does not increase or declines from current levels.