Pegasystems (PEGA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.36-0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PEGA
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 PEGA trades at 22× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median. Our $46 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $25–$47. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $35.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $171.82 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $172.88 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $11.17 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$25.00 – $47.00 (median $35.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-07-24
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 54% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 4.6 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.02/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $12.72 |
| 13.6 |
| 0.86 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $53.10 | 18.6 | 2.86 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $45.11 | 17.5 | 2.58 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $38.11 | 3.8 | 10.11 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $31.14 | 18.3 | 1.70 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $9.34 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $49.80 | 27.4 | 1.81 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $80.75 | 18.6 | 4.35 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $58.37 | 17.5 | 3.34 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $56.63 | 3.8 | 15.02 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $47.36 | 18.3 | 2.59 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $106.80 | 18.6 | 5.75 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $75.53 | 17.5 | 4.32 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $73.28 | 3.8 | 19.44 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $62.63 | 18.3 | 3.42 | Analyst | medium |