Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Pegasystems (PEGA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.57-2.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.60 → 2.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PEGA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Pega Cloud Annual Contract Value growth | Pegasystems grows cloud contract value 29% yearly. | Under Pressure | ACV growth falls below 20% YoY next year | Pega Cloud revenue: $218.925M FY2026-Q3; reported segment. Published target: >= $907M ACV. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 20, 2026218,925,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PEGA is a software growth business whose multi-year view depends on expanding cloud and AI-related recurring revenue while improving cash generation. The thesis is still intact, but its signal has turned cautious after three consecutive reported earnings misses.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure indicates PEGA is cheap versus peers, while another shows a 69% premium, and the expectations gap is negative. The overall pricing tag is justified, with low flagged fragility, but the evidence does not show that valuation removes execution risk.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and the risk of a guidance cut could weigh on execution confidence. Over the multi-year view, Pega Cloud ACV grew 20% in Q3 2026, but total ACV growth slowed to 6%, and nine-month operating cash flow was below the prior-year period. Management continues to prioritize cloud and AI growth and has committed to at least $700 million of free cash flow in 2028, though current cash-flow progress is limited.
The thesis depends on whether Pega Cloud and AI can support stronger total ACV growth and whether cash generation improves over time. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; steadier results from major technology peers or interest-rate cuts could improve the sector backdrop, but those conditions are uncertain.
For the next 1 to 3 years, PEGA’s thesis rests on translating cloud growth into steadier overall growth and stronger cash flow, while addressing its run of earnings misses. The business rationale remains intact, but execution risk is high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow exceeds $200 million. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $200M next year |
Free cash flow: $1.567M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $200M FCF. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 20, 20261,567,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 5 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We are taking decisive actions to improve execution, accelerate growth, and keep us on track to deliver $700M or more of free cash flow in 2028.”” “Document EXHIBIT 99.1 Pega Drives Cash Flow and Releases AI Innovation in Q2 2026 • Pega Cloud Annual Contract Value (ACV) increases 22% year over year • ACV grows 7% year over year (8% in constant currency) • Cash flow from operations and free cash flow both exceed $285M in first half of 2026 • Clients react with enthusiasm to Pega’s ‘no per-token cost’ WALTHAM, Mass.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating income improvement | A supporting condition in Pegasystems's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $80M. | Broken | Operating income stays below $50M next year | Diluted EPS: $0.08 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $80M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 20, 20260.08 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.99 → $2.37 · observed estimates
$2.20B → $1.90B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.99 | $2,196,962,220 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.64 | $2,062,348,080 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.64 | $2,062,348,080 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,520 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.64 | $2,062,348,080 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,520 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,520 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.64 | $2,062,348,080 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.64 | $2,062,348,080 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.64 | $2,062,348,080 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.64 | $2,062,348,080 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.64 | $2,062,348,080 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.64 | $2,059,147,239 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.60 | $2,037,541,378 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.60 | $2,037,541,378 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.62 | $2,029,763,600 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.62 | $2,029,763,600 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.62 | $2,029,763,600 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.62 | $2,029,763,600 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.62 | $2,029,763,600 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.62 | $2,029,763,600 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.62 | $2,029,763,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.62 | $2,029,763,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.62 | $2,029,763,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.62 | $2,029,763,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.61 | $2,027,598,934 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.61 | $2,027,597,378 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.61 | $2,027,597,378 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.61 | $2,027,597,378 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.60 | $2,020,364,045 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.60 | $2,020,364,045 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.60 | $2,020,364,045 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.60 | $2,020,364,045 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.60 | $2,020,364,045 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.60 | $2,020,364,045 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.60 | $2,020,364,045 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.60 | $2,020,364,045 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.60 | $2,020,364,045 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.60 | $2,020,364,045 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.60 | $2,020,364,045 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.60 | $2,020,030,711 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.60 | $2,008,826,442 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.60 | $2,008,826,442 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.60 | $2,008,826,442 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.60 | $2,011,001,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.60 | $2,011,001,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.60 | $2,011,001,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.60 | $2,011,001,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.42 | $1,909,334,689 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.37 | $1,899,690,142 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
2 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.