Pegasystems (PEGA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.36+0.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PEGA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PEGA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-20
and the Exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Q3 ACV growth slowed to 6%, and Pega cited sales execution challenges. Faster growth would show that its actions are working.
Supportive ifThe next reported year-over-year ACV growth rate is above 6%.
Worry ifThe next reported year-over-year ACV growth rate is 6% or lower.
Why it matters: Pega Cloud ACV grew 20% in Q3 and made up 59% of total ACV. Slower growth could weaken a key growth driver.
Worry ifPega reports year-over-year Pega Cloud ACV growth below 20%.
Less concerning ifPega Cloud ACV growth is 20% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Pega tied its long-term cash goal to faster growth and better execution. Cash flow from operations fell to $304.3 million for the first nine months of 2026, from $346.8 million a year earlier.
Worry ifFull-year free cash flow is at or above the 2026 target of $575 million shown in the June investor deck.
Less concerning ifFull-year free cash flow is below $575 million, or management lowers its 2028 goal of $700 million or more.
Why it matters: Operating income fell to $68.6 million in the first nine months of 2026, from $158.7 million a year earlier. A recovery would support Pega’s margin plans.
Supportive ifFull-year operating income is above the 2025 full-year level. The next nine-month comparison shows no new drop.
Worry ifOver the next nine months, operating income totals less than $68.6 million, or Pega lowers its margin goals.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$190 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $511 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,845 loss on $10,000 · 58.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Pega said it returned over $600 million from 2023 through 2025. A clear 2026 total would show whether capital returns continue as cash flow slows.
Watch forPega reports 2026 cash returns above the 2025 level, while keeping its dividend and share buybacks in place.
Also watch forPega reports 2026 cash returns below the 2025 level, or reports a cut to its dividend or share buybacks.