Pegasystems (PEGA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.36-0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PEGA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers
PEGA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-21
and the Exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: An increase in operating income shows better cost management. It also means improved margins.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $20M in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income remains below $20M in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: News on share buybacks can show management's trust in the company's value and future cash.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks over $200M.
Worry ifNo news on share buybacks or cuts to planned buybacks.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps return money to investors. It shows the company is doing well.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow reported above $575M.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow reported below $575M.
Why it matters: A significant drop in revenue would signal ongoing challenges in growth and demand.
Worry ifQ2 2026 total revenue reported below $386 million, which is a 10% decline from Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 total revenue remains stable or grows year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $511 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,095 loss on $10,000 · 61.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good health. It helps with future growth investments.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $200 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $150 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows that management is making progress. The company is bouncing back from recent drops.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds a 5% increase compared to Q1's $429.9M.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains flat or declines compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A big earnings miss shows ongoing problems. This may lower investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows a net income decline greater than 50% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings report shows a net income decline of less than 50% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key updates on revenue, income, and cash flow. It is crucial for assessing progress.
Watch forEarnings report shows positive trends in revenue and income.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing drops in important financial numbers.
Why it matters: AI investment insights will show Pega's position and future growth.
Watch forManagement says AI investments made money in Q2 2026.
Also watch forManagement talks about issues with AI investment results in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Steady ACV growth shows Pega can carry out its growth plan.
Supportive ifACV growth reported at or above 15% year over year.
Worry ifACV growth reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. This shows the company is fixing its profit problems.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income rose to over $50M. This is up from Q1's $37.1M.
Worry ifOperating income stays below $37.1M in Q2.
Why it matters: A rise in ACV shows strong demand for Pega's cloud solutions and growth potential.
Supportive ifPega Cloud ACV increases more than 15% year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifPega Cloud ACV growth falls below 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show strong cash flow. They also show a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $200M in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases are below $200M in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Pega's growth in free cash flow helps its plan to return money to investors.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $575M for 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $500M for 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting or exceeding earnings goals can help gain back investor trust after a recent miss.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share meet or exceed $0.35.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share fall below $0.25.
Why it matters: Falling operating income shows problems with managing costs. This may hurt future profits.
Worry ifOperating income was less than $16M in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating income was more than $16M in Q3.
Why it matters: The ACV growth rate shows how well Pega is growing despite market challenges. A strong growth rate signals confidence in their strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 ACV growth rate exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 ACV growth rate falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth and returning capital to shareholders. Strong guidance indicates financial health.
Supportive ifManagement confirms free cash flow guidance of $575M or higher for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers free cash flow guidance below $500M for 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins mean Pega is controlling costs well. This is important for making money long-term.
Supportive ifOperating margin is over 20% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin falls below 15% in Q3.