Penumbra, Inc. (PEN)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$322.17+0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PEN
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $322 PEN trades at 80× p/e — 2.8× the 28× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $147 fair value is low-confidence here. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $347 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $317.07 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $322.26 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $59.30 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $134.46 | 24.6 | 5.46 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 380% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 17.8 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.93/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $104.33 |
| 18.7 |
| 5.58 |
| ntm analyst |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $111.94 | 2.9 | 38.03 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $283.17 | 70.1 | 4.04 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $44.18 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $118.92 | 28.3 | 4.21 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $96.01 | 18.7 | 5.13 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $114.70 | 2.9 | 38.97 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $359.62 | 70.1 | 5.13 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $80.45 | 18.7 | 4.30 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $96.10 | 2.9 | 32.65 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $301.32 | 70.1 | 4.30 | Analyst | medium |