Penumbra, Inc. (PEN)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$322.17+0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PEN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 118.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 104.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PEN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, Penumbra, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the second fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished on this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the attached exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act o…
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is on track after the recent miss.
Watch forQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Management aims for over 20% growth in U.S. thrombectomy revenue. Meeting this target shows strong market demand.
Supportive ifU.S. thrombectomy revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifU.S. thrombectomy revenue growth remains below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends indicate market demand and company health. A slowdown could raise concerns.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth in Q3 is below 14% year over year.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth in Q3 exceeds 14% year over year.
Why it matters: Gross margin trends show how well the company runs. A drop may mean higher costs.
Supportive ifGross margin improves to above 68% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 67% in Q3.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$24 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $198 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,144 loss on $10,000 · 21.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Thrombectomy revenue growth is key to overall performance. A slowdown could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifThrombectomy revenue growth in Q3 exceeds 12.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifThrombectomy revenue growth in Q3 is below 12.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing the acquisition is important for growth and stability. Delays may hurt investor trust.
Watch forRegulators approve the acquisition. This lets the deal move forward as planned.
Also watch forRegulators stop or slow down approval. This raises questions about the acquisition.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may show bigger problems for Penumbra.
Worry ifSector revenue growth has been below its average for two months in a row.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is steady or goes above the average.