Penumbra, Inc. (PEN)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$321.11-0.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PEN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 118.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 105.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 42 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PEN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2026, Penumbra, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the third fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished on this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the attached exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchang…
Why it matters: Thrombectomy is Penumbra's largest product group. Its growth rose from 12.5% in Q2 to 18.1% in Q3.
Supportive ifThe next reported quarter shows thrombectomy revenue growth above 12% year over year.
Worry ifThe next reported quarter shows thrombectomy revenue growth below 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Gross margin rose in Q3, but management has named it as a focus. A drop could weaken the profit picture.
Worry ifThe next reported quarter shows gross margin below 68%.
Less concerning ifThe next reported quarter shows gross margin at or above 68%.
Why it matters: The deal is pending, and Penumbra has stopped giving full-year guidance. A close or delay will shape the next steps for the business.
Watch forA company filing or press release says the Boston Scientific deal has closed.
Also watch forA company filing reports a delay, a failed approval, or that the deal was ended.
Why it matters: The calendar lists an earnings date just days after the Q3 release. Watch for a clear account of the reported earnings miss.
Watch forThe November 4 update gives a clear cause for the earnings miss and reports no cut to Q3 revenue growth.
Also watch forThe update points to weaker revenue or margins, or gives no clear reason for the earnings miss.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$28 on $10,000 · ±0.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $95 loss on $10,000 · 0.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,223 loss on $10,000 · 12.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.