Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Penumbra, Inc. (PEN)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$322.45+0.76%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.99 → 5.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PEN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin near 68% | A primary condition in Penumbra, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~68% gross margin. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 66% next year | Gross margin: 68.34% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~68% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 202668.342415 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PEN is a growth-oriented medical-device business with robust earnings quality and a supportive sector backdrop. Its multi-year view is intact, though the recent record of earnings misses tempers the strong operating picture.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 2.71 premium measure and an expectations gap of 1.02. The evidence points to valuation as the main source of fragility, but confidence in that assessment is low.
In the near term, revenue has risen from $385.4 million in 2025-Q4 to $410.1 million in 2026-Q3, and U.S. VTE revenue grew 26% year over year. Gross margin was 68.3% in Q3 and increased year over year, while the margin priority remains mixed; consecutive earnings misses, including the most recent quarter, are a near-term concern.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in thrombectomy and related products, and on maintaining or improving margins. Near-term evidence could weaken if PEN cuts guidance or employment data keeps weakening; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the healthcare backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the business setup remains supported by revenue growth, stable management, and a favorable sector backdrop, but expensive valuation and recent earnings misses make execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Penumbra, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is On track with stated revenue and margin goals. |
| Broken |
| Management misses revenue or margin targets two quarters in a row |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin at least 14.8% | A supporting condition in Penumbra, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=14.8%. | Broken | Operating margin falls below 13% next year | Operating margin: 12.37% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=14.8%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 202612.370991 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 15% annually | A primary condition in Penumbra, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year | Revenue growth: 15.64% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202615.63641 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.25 → $5.94 · observed estimates
$1.80B → $1.81B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.25 | $1,800,355,650 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.25 | $1,800,355,650 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.25 | $1,800,355,650 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.25 | $1,800,355,650 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.15 | $1,798,764,261 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.15 | $1,798,764,261 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.25 | $1,800,355,650 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.15 | $1,798,764,261 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.15 | $1,798,764,261 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.20 | $1,802,013,770 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.13 | $1,799,762,060 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.13 | $1,799,785,910 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.09 | $1,795,735,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,298 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.99 | $1,800,029,841 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.94 | $1,808,812,999 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.94 | $1,808,812,999 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.94 | $1,808,812,999 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.94 | $1,810,005,721 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.94 | $1,810,005,721 | 5 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.