Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Grabagun Digital Holdings Inc (PEW)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.03-5.14%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PEW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve gross profit margins with gross profit above $2.7 million quarterly | Gross profit rose from $2.13 million to $2.77 million in recent quarters. | Intact | gross profit falls below $2.5 million in any quarter | Gross profit: $3.126M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.7 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 20263,126,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, with weak recent financial performance and high risk. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with some execution progress but important questions still open.
PEW is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is notably negative. Priced-in fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to a concentrated fragility issue; however, the low peer valuation sits alongside losses and weak relative performance.
Near term, revenue growth is uneven: Q2 revenue rose year over year but fell sequentially, while gross margin improved year over year. Management has onboarded logistics partners, but the platform’s revenue contribution is not yet verified; the recent acquisition and CFO transition add limited context about execution. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
The multi-year view depends on whether PEW can turn partner onboarding into measurable logistics revenue while sustaining revenue growth and margin improvement. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while continued earnings strength from sector bellwether LQDT could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from LQDT could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PEW’s thesis remains unproven: margin progress and early partner growth are positives, but losses, uneven revenue, and high risk keep execution central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Grabagun Digital Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is net income >= 0. |
| Improving |
| net income remains negative beyond FY27 |
Net income: $-1.81M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= 0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026-1,810,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase annual revenue to $96.4 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Grabagun Digital Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $96.4 million. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $90 million in FY26 | Revenue: $23.217M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $96.4 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202623,217,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.27 → $-0.25 · observed estimates
$0.11B → $0.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.27 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.25 | $109,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.