Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
Performance Food Group (PFGC)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$109.57+13.53%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.77 → 6.72 EPS · FY ending Jun 27, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PFGC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA near $1.9B-$1.93B in FY 2026 | Profit margins stay near $1.9 billion adjusted EBITDA. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.9B in FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PFGC is a food distribution business with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent earnings misses and mixed progress on profitability targets leave execution quality neutral.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.35 premium, and the evidence suggests the valuation is justified rather than unusually fragile. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the market appears to leave limited room for results to fall short.
In the near term, management’s revenue plan is on track: fiscal 2026 sales grew 7.2%, and fiscal 2027 guidance calls for $72.5 billion to $73.0 billion. Profitability progress is less settled: adjusted EBITDA grew 9.2% in fiscal 2026, but progress against the fiscal 2027 goal is mixed, and the company has missed earnings in recent quarters.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on meeting guidance and sustaining gross profit growth through case volume and mix. A guidance cut or further job-market weakening would raise concerns, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, strong recent financial performance and revenue growth keep the thesis intact, but expensive valuation makes reliable execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Performance Food Group's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable debt levels and continue buybacks without harming cash flow. |
| Intact |
| Debt or buybacks impair cash flow or credit metrics materially |
Debt paydown & buyback execution vs stable debt/buybacks target Moody's upgraded notes on debt paydown; Q4 highlights record free cash flow supporting buybacks. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross profit grows to about $1.94B by Q3 2026 | The company keeps growing gross profit, up $116 million from last year. | Intact | gross profit falls below $1.82B in Q3 2026 | Gross profit: $2.188B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.94B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20262,187,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our team’s execution on several key efficiency initiatives improved our profitability, driving gross margin expansion and double-digit Adjusted EBITDA and EPS growth in the quarter.” “Strong execution and our diversified business model are producing market share gains and translating into strong financial performance.” Gross profit was $1.939 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows to $67.7B-$68.0B in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Performance Food Group's published investment case. The stated target is ~$67.85B. | Intact | revenue falls below $67.7B in FY 2026 | Revenue: $18.018B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$67.85B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202618,018,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.00 → $6.72 · observed estimates
$75.35B → $74.75B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | $7.00 | $75,349,853,891 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.00 | $75,349,853,891 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.00 | $75,349,853,891 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.00 | $75,349,853,891 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.00 | $75,349,853,891 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.00 | $75,349,853,891 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.00 | $75,349,853,891 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.00 | $75,349,853,891 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.80 | $75,089,461,304 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.80 | $75,089,461,304 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.80 | $75,089,461,304 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.80 | $75,089,461,304 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.80 | $75,089,461,304 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.80 | $75,089,461,304 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.80 | $75,089,461,304 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.80 | $75,089,461,304 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.80 | $75,089,461,304 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.80 | $75,149,827,435 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.79 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.79 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.79 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.79 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.79 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.77 | $75,177,916,245 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.77 | $74,809,432,950 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.77 | $74,809,432,950 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.77 | $74,809,432,950 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.77 | $74,799,210,188 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.77 | $74,799,210,188 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.77 | $74,799,210,188 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.77 | $74,799,210,188 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.77 | $74,799,210,188 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.75 | $74,799,254,969 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.74 | $74,797,427,794 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.73 | $74,797,448,441 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.73 | $74,797,441,308 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.73 | $74,797,441,308 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.73 | $74,793,557,975 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.73 | $74,793,557,975 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.72 | $74,770,084,906 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.72 | $74,770,084,906 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.72 | $74,770,084,906 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.72 | $74,747,109,906 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.72 | $74,747,109,906 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.72 | $74,747,109,906 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.72 | $74,747,109,906 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.72 | $74,747,109,906 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.