Performance Food Group (PFGC)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$98.63-0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Performance Food Group grows sales about 6% yearly, hitting $68 billion in 2026. Profit margins stay near $1.9 billion adjusted EBITDA. The company keeps growing gross profit, up $116 million from last year. It has stable management and solid cash flow.
Revenue growth slows below 5% or adjusted EBITDA falls under $1.9 billion. Rising debt costs or weaker profit margins could hurt cash flow. Competition or supply issues may pressure growth and profits.
The market expects about 10% revenue growth next year and values the stock slightly below consensus estimates. Our view aligns with this growth but sees risks if margins or EBITDA targets slip.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.9B in FY 2026
Breaks if: Debt or buybacks impair cash flow or credit metrics materially
gross profit falls below $1.82B in Q3 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, although confidence has shifted to medium due to recent earnings misses.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality, but this is not fully reflected in the stock's valuation. PFGC is currently viewed as expensive compared to its peers, with a premium of 1.29.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued revenue growth as management aims for $72.5B-$73.0B in fiscal 2027. However, there is a moderate risk due to a recent history of earnings misses, which could impact investor sentiment.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet growth targets and the overall performance of the Consumer Staples sector. Key factors include potential inflation reacceleration and the performance of sector bellwethers like SYY, USFD, and CHEF.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company reported strong sales growth of 6.4%. However, it missed earnings expectations and revenue estimates for the quarter. This earnings miss could hinder revenue growth and impact EBITDA growth expectations.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $67.7B in FY 2026
Aim to achieve net sales in the range of $67.7 billion to $68.0 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PFGC's performance will depend on execution and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.