Performance Food Group (PFGC)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$98.63-0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PFGC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PFGC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Independent case volume growth supports overall revenue growth. It shows market demand.
Supportive ifIndependent case volume growth exceeds 8% year over year.
Worry ifIndependent case volume growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth in the Consumer Staples sector may help Performance Food Group.
Supportive ifConsumer Staples revenue growth picks up to above 5% year over year.
Worry ifConsumer Staples revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Margins affect profits. They show how well PFG controls costs.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin rises to over 2.85% in Q2.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 2.5% in Q2.
Why it matters: Missing earnings could show problems in operations. This might hurt investor trust.
Watch forQ1 2027 earnings exceed analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Also watch forQ1 2027 earnings fall short of analyst expectations by more than 10%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $267 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,547 loss on $10,000 · 25.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing this will help PFGC have more financial options and lower debt costs.
Supportive ifThe Senior Notes offering ends on February 19, 2026.
Worry ifThe offering is delayed or fails to close as planned.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA growth is crucial for PFGC to achieve its target of $2.125B-$2.225B for FY 2027.
Supportive ifIn Q1 2027, Adjusted EBITDA is more than $525 million.
Worry ifIn Q1 2027, Adjusted EBITDA is less than $525 million.
Why it matters: Higher net income means better profits and good cost control.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 net income increases from $41.7 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net income decreases or stays below $41.7 million.
Why it matters: Case volume growth impacts gross profit and overall revenue, critical for PFGC's targets.
Supportive ifTotal case volume growth exceeds 5% year-over-year in Q1 2027.
Worry ifTotal case volume growth is below 5% year-over-year in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: A decline signals weakening demand in the foodservice sector. It could impact overall revenue.
Worry ifOrganic case volume growth reported below 3.0% for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifOrganic case volume growth remains above 3.0% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Tightening guidance shows that management believes revenue will grow. It shows strong demand.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q4 revenue guidance within the range of $67.7B-$68.0B.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q4 revenue guidance to below $67.7B.
Why it matters: Gains in this area show strong strategy and competitive strength.
Supportive ifIndependent case volume growth exceeds 7% in Q4.
Worry ifIndependent case volume growth falls below 5% in Q4.
Why it matters: More repurchases may show management's trust in the stock. It also shows financial health.
Supportive ifThey announced share repurchases over $100 million in Q4.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in Q4.
Why it matters: Keeping gross profit growth shows good operations. It also shows strong demand.
Supportive ifGross profit growth reported at or above previous levels.
Worry ifGross profit growth declines from previous levels.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for PFGC to meet its target of $72.5B-$73.0B for FY 2027.
Supportive ifQ1 2027 revenue growth exceeds 5.5% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ1 2027 revenue growth is below 5.5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows PFGC is on track for growth. It confirms management's strategy is effective.
Supportive ifQ1 2027 revenue guidance aligns with the target of $72.5 billion to $73.0 billion.
Worry ifQ1 2027 revenue guidance falls below $72.5 billion.
Why it matters: More buybacks show management believes in the company's value and growth.
Supportive ifShare buybacks rise from the current $498.5 million available.
Worry ifNo major share buybacks happen in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this growth shows strong demand and supports the revenue target for FY 2026.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue growth of 7.4% or more compared to the prior year.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth falls below 5% compared to the prior year.
Why it matters: Hitting this range shows strong operations and good cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for FY 2027 is guided to be between $2.125 billion and $2.225 billion.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $2.125 billion.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good performance. It will help grow revenue.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q4 is over $410 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q4 is under $410 million.
Why it matters: Management aims for revenue of $72.5B-$73.0B. Confirmation shows growth is on track.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 revenue guidance confirmed in the next earnings call or press release.
Worry ifGuidance revised down below $72.5 billion for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: If operating expenses rise too fast, it could hurt profit margins and net income.
Worry ifOperating expenses grew 8% or less compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses grew more than 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Higher inflation could squeeze margins and impact gross profit growth.
Worry ifProduct cost inflation reported above 5% for Q4.
Less concerning ifProduct cost inflation reported below 5% for Q4.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifPFG announces a new share repurchase of at least $100 million in Q2.
Worry ifNo share repurchase announcements in Q2.
Why it matters: Steady gross profit growth shows strong pricing power and good cost control.
Supportive ifGross profit growth exceeds 6% year over year in Q4.
Worry ifGross profit growth falls below 4% year over year in Q4.