Performance Food Group (PFGC)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$109.68+0.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PFGC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PFGC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: This is management's sales goal for the year. Sales growth would show that recent volume gains continue.
Supportive ifAt the November 4 earnings report, PFG keeps FY 2027 sales guidance at $72.5B-$73.0B or raises it.
Worry ifPFG cuts FY 2027 sales guidance below $72.5B.
Why it matters: PFG had used only $1.5M of the $500M plan by FY 2026 year-end. New repurchases would show the plan is moving forward.
Supportive ifA future filing reports at least $25M of new share repurchases in one quarter.
Worry ifA future filing reports no repurchases in the next two reported quarters.
Why it matters: PFG's adjusted EBITDA grew 9.2% in FY 2026. The new range calls for further growth, while higher costs have weighed on results.
Watch forPFG keeps or raises FY 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance within or above $2.125B-$2.225B.
Also watch forPFG cuts FY 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance below $2.125B.
Why it matters: Gross profit grew 9.1% in FY 2026, but operating expenses also rose 9.1%. Faster cost growth could squeeze earnings.
Watch forA FY 2027 quarter shows gross profit growth above operating expense growth year over year.
Also watch forA FY 2027 quarter shows operating expense growth above gross profit growth year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $277 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,373 loss on $10,000 · 23.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.