Peoples Financial Services Corp. (PFIS)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$71.83+1.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PFIS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
PFIS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, Peoples Financial Services Corp. issued a press release announcing unaudited results of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 and financial condition at June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: If the efficiency ratio worsens, it may mean costs are rising faster than revenue. This would hurt overall profits.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio goes above 56% in Q3.
Less concerning ifThe efficiency ratio is below 55% in Q3. This shows better cost control.
Why it matters: Changes in the provision show how well the company handles credit risk. A rising provision may mean worse asset quality.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses in Q3 2026 is under $3.1 million. This shows stable asset quality.
Less concerning ifProvision for credit losses in Q3 2026 is over $3.1 million. This suggests higher credit risk.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below 15%, it may mean problems for the company's growth.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable dividends signal financial health and commitment to shareholders. Any cut could raise concerns about cash flow.
Watch forDividend remains at $0.625 per share in Q3.
Also watch forDividend is cut below $0.625 per share in Q3, indicating cash flow issues.
Why it matters: A better net interest margin shows the bank is managing its interest income and costs well. This could help make more money.
Supportive ifNet interest margin in Q3 2026 is over 3.82%. This shows good interest rate management.
Worry ifNet interest margin in Q3 2026 is below 3.82%. This suggests problems in managing interest income.
Why it matters: More charge-offs may mean higher credit risk. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed $1 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below $1 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Continued loan growth is crucial for revenue. It reflects demand and the bank's ability to lend effectively.
Supportive ifTotal loans grow by more than $112.6 million in Q3 2026, showing strong demand.
Worry ifTotal loans grow by less than $112.6 million in Q3 2026, indicating weaker demand.
Why it matters: Net income growth shows how well management is growing the company. It shows how well the company controls costs and credit losses.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $14.8 million, showing growth from Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 is under $14.8 million. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in net income shows worse profit trends. This could worry investors.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls more than 5% year over year from $14.8 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income remains stable or increases compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows good management and high demand for credit. This helps profit.
Supportive ifTotal loans increase by more than 10% annualized in Q3 compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifLoan growth falls below 5% annualized in Q3 compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher deposit costs could hurt net interest margins and profits.
Worry ifCost of deposits exceeds 1.75% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCost of deposits remains below 1.70% in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$106 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $238 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,654 loss on $10,000 · 16.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.