Peoples Financial Services Corp. (PFIS)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$74.69+2.46%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PFIS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PFIS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, Peoples Financial Services Corp. issued a press release announcing unaudited results of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 and financial condition at June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Q3 margin was 3.80%, just below Q2's 3.82%. A higher margin would show that loan income still covers rising funding costs.
Supportive ifQ4 FTE net interest margin is above 3.80%.
Worry ifQ4 FTE net interest margin falls below 3.80%.
Why it matters: Loans grew 5.6% annualized in Q3 and 8.6% year over year. Another strong quarter would back management's growth plan.
Supportive ifQ4 loans rise more than 5.6% annualized from the Q3 balance of $4.4 billion.
Worry ifQ4 loan growth is flat or negative from the Q3 balance of $4.4 billion.
Why it matters: Financials are still growing, but the sector trend is easing. PFIS loan growth can show whether its own pace is holding up.
Watch forPFIS loans grow more than 5.6% annualized in Q4, even as the sector trend eases.
Also watch forPFIS loans are flat or decline in Q4 as the sector trend eases.
Why it matters: Deposit costs rose from Q2 to Q3, and the bank used CD specials, brokered deposits, and FHLB advances. Further cost increases could squeeze its margin.
Worry ifQ4 total deposit cost rises above 1.79%, or funding costs rise while the margin falls below 3.80%.
Less concerning ifQ4 total deposit cost is at or below 1.79% and the margin stays at or above 3.80%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $236 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,037 loss on $10,000 · 10.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 had a credit benefit, while the first nine months had a $3.3 million provision. A return to credit costs could weigh on earnings.
Worry ifQ4 reports a provision for credit losses above $0.
Less concerning ifQ4 shows a credit benefit or no provision, with nonperforming assets of $10.3 million or less.