PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (PFSI)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$67.55+5.71%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PFSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 100.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 125.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PFSI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2026, the Company issued a press release and a slide presentation announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026. Copies of the press release and the slide presentation used in connection with the Company’s presentation of financial results were made available on October 29, 2026, and are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively. In addition, the Company has made other supplemental…
Why it matters: The sale would bring in about $490 million. Management plans to use the cash to pay debt and repurchase shares.
Supportive ifPFSI completes the sale of $29 billion in low-rate conventional MSRs in Q4. It reports about $490 million in proceeds.
Worry ifThe sale does not close in Q4, or reported proceeds are far below about $490 million.
Why it matters: PFSI's production business lost $7 million in Q3 as loan volume fell. More losses would add to weak earnings.
Worry ifProduction reports a pretax loss in Q4 2026, after its $7 million loss in Q3.
Less concerning ifProduction returns to pretax income in Q4 2026, after its $7 million loss in Q3.
Why it matters: Management set this cost-cut goal as mortgage demand stays weak. Meeting it could ease pressure on earnings.
Supportive ifBy Q1 2027, annual costs are down about $160 million from Q2 2026, on an annual run-rate basis.
Worry ifBy Q1 2027, annual costs are down far less than $160 million from Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The deal would grow PFSI's fee-based servicing business. Management says its scale and tech can lift returns.
Supportive ifPFSI completes the Cenlar subservicing deal by Q1 2027. It reports that the portfolio has begun moving to its platform.
Worry ifThe deal misses the Q1 2027 close window, or PFSI reports that the transfer has been delayed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $308 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,354 loss on $10,000 · 63.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted ROE fell from 7% in Q2 to 5% in Q3. A rise would show better returns while costs and demand remain under pressure.
Supportive ifPFSI reports adjusted ROE above 5% in Q4 2026, versus 5% in Q3.
Worry ifPFSI reports adjusted ROE at or below 5% in Q4 2026.