PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (PFSI)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$73.29+0.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PFSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 100.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 126.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
PFSI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and a slide presentation announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. Copies of the press release and the slide presentation used in connection with the Company’s presentation of financial results were made available on July 29, 2026 and are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively. In addition , the Company h…
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend per share is important for investor trust and funding.
Watch forA dividend announcement shows the dividend per share will stay the same or rise.
Also watch forA dividend announcement shows a cut or stop to the dividend per share.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.30 per share for Q2.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the dividend for Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in pretax income shows ongoing problems in the production segment.
Worry ifProduction segment pretax income falls below $38 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifProduction segment pretax income meets or exceeds $38 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted ROE shows money-making problems. High interest rates are causing this.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted return on equity falls below 7%.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted return on equity meets or exceeds 7%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $318 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,531 loss on $10,000 · 55.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows good money management. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend of $0.3 per share again.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Why it matters: A decline in net income below this threshold signals worsening financial health.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $22 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income reported at or above $22 million.
Why it matters: Continued growth in direct lending channels is crucial for PFSI's earnings.
Supportive ifConsumer direct originations grow by more than 15% year over year.
Worry ifConsumer direct originations grow by less than 15% each year.
Why it matters: Growth in this area shows demand for loans and the effectiveness of the company's strategy. It reflects the company's ability to capture market share.
Supportive ifDirect consumer loans may reach $6 billion or more next quarter.
Worry ifDirect consumer loans may drop below $5 billion next quarter.
Why it matters: A decline in sector revenue growth could signal broader issues in the financial sector.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in growth could indicate challenges in the direct lending market.
Worry ifConsumer direct originations grow less than 50% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifConsumer direct originations keep growing. They are up by 50% or more each year.
Why it matters: Closing this deal could make PFSI work better and earn more money.
Supportive ifThe deal for Cenlar's subservicing portfolio will close as planned in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed or falls through.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 15% would signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good use of money. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.3 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.3 per share for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This shows how well the company is handling costs with high interest rates. A steady ROE means good cost management.
Worry ifAdjusted ROE remains at or above 7% for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifAdjusted ROE drops below 7% in the next quarter.