Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Progyny (PGNY)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.37+14.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.52 → 1.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PGNY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA target of $58M-$62M for Q2 2026 | Profit margins stay strong with adjusted EBITDA near $60 million in Q2. | Under Pressure | adjusted EBITDA falls below $58 million in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PGNY is a growth-oriented healthcare business with recent strong results and robust earnings quality. Its multi-year view is intact, though the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable and risk remains high.
The valuation evidence describes PGNY as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag says expectations are justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not explain its size in plain terms, so how much room expectations leave for execution is uncertain.
Near term, management is on track with its 2026 revenue-growth goal and has continued to deliver gross-profit and margin improvement. Recent earnings beats support the business setup, but guidance cuts and weakening jobs data are key risks; the company also has a history of a deep miss.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on management maintaining its revenue outlook and continuing margin gains. A guidance cut or further weakening in employment could weigh on the business outlook, while continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare bellwethers would support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, PGNY’s operating progress supports an intact thesis, but high risk and sensitivity to economic conditions temper the case. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income rose to $24 million in Q1 2026. |
| Improving |
| net income falls below $13.9 million in any quarter |
Net income: $28.052M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income grows or stays above $24 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202628,052,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to $1.365B-$1.405B in 2026 | A primary condition in Progyny's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.375 billion. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $1.365 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $350.511M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.375 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026350,511,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execution of $200M share repurchase program | The company supports shareholders with a $200 million share buyback. | Intact | buyback program is canceled or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.25 → $1.51 · observed estimates
$1.51B → $1.51B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.25 | $1,505,217,390 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.25 | $1,505,217,390 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.25 | $1,505,217,390 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.25 | $1,505,217,390 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.25 | $1,505,217,390 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.25 | $1,505,217,390 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.25 | $1,505,217,390 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.25 | $1,505,217,390 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.26 | $1,505,080,590 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.26 | $1,505,080,590 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.27 | $1,509,577,580 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.49 | $1,505,204,767 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.52 | $1,512,564,957 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.52 | $1,512,013,597 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.52 | $1,512,286,324 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.52 | $1,512,314,288 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.52 | $1,512,314,288 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.52 | $1,512,314,288 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.52 | $1,512,314,288 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.52 | $1,512,314,288 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.52 | $1,512,314,288 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.52 | $1,512,314,288 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.52 | $1,512,314,288 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.52 | $1,513,541,561 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.52 | $1,513,541,561 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.52 | $1,515,651,470 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.52 | $1,515,651,470 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.51 | $1,513,844,506 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.