Progyny (PGNY)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.94-2.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PGNY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 11.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PGNY — President transition
Dated 2025-12-17
President — Michael Sturmer: The President is departing with severance and a consulting agreement, but the company explicitly states it is not naming a successor due to recent leadership enhancements, indicating an orderly restructuring rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows that Progyny is managing costs well. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 increases year over year by more than 20%.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 grows less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in the health care sector growth phase could impact Progyny's performance. The sector has been easing lately.
Worry ifHealth care revenue growth drops below its median growth rate.
Less concerning ifHealth care revenue growth stabilizes or improves above its median growth rate.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA of $58M to $62M is key for making money and keeping investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 adjusted EBITDA reported within the range of $58M to $62M.
Worry ifQ2 2026 adjusted EBITDA was below $58M.
Why it matters: The result of the lawsuit may change how management works and how the company is run.
Watch forThe court approves the settlement for the lawsuit.
Also watch forThe court does not approve the settlement.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $408 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,265 loss on $10,000 · 42.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: High member engagement helps make more money. It shows demand for Progyny's services.
Watch forMember engagement was at or above normal levels for this time of year.
Also watch forMember engagement was below normal levels for this time of year.
Why it matters: Approval may bring changes to management and boost investor trust.
Supportive ifThe court approved the settlement in the derivative case.
Worry ifCourt denies the settlement approval.
Why it matters: More buybacks would show good use of money and trust in the company's future.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks of more than 2 million shares.
Worry ifNo news about more share buybacks.
Why it matters: If the settlement is approved, it may lead to better governance and more value for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe court approved the settlement agreement. This will bring new governance policies.
Worry ifThe court denied the settlement. This will lead to more legal issues and possible costs.
Why it matters: Keeping a gross margin above 25% shows good cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifGross margin was above 25% for Q3. This confirms ongoing improvements in operations.
Worry ifGross margin fell below 25%. This suggests costs are rising or there are inefficiencies.
Why it matters: Progyny's gross profit keeps growing. This shows the company is getting better at its work.
Supportive ifGross profit for Q2 increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifGross profit for Q2 grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in demand and could impact full-year growth targets.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 6.9% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 6.9% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may indicate challenges in the business. This could affect investor sentiment.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the sector median of 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the sector median.
Why it matters: New buyback news shows management trusts the stock. This can help the share price.
Supportive ifA new buyback program over $200 million is announced.
Worry ifNo announcement of additional share repurchase programs by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well Progyny engages members during the selling season.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $345 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance falls below $335 million.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show the company is strong and cares about its investors.
Supportive ifProgyny announces it bought back over 1 million shares in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases are announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping or improving gross margin shows the company controls costs and runs well.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 25% for Q3.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 25% in Q3.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well the company turns revenue into profit. This affects investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income meets or exceeds $26.7 million in Q3.
Worry ifNet income falls below $24.5 million in Q3.