Progressive Corporation (PGR)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-07-07
$234.37+1.17%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading PGR? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track PGR free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading PGR? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track PGR free→QuarterlyIQ Insights · PGR
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $234.37. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $234 the market pays 4.3× p/b — above the 1.8× p/b peer median but in line with its own 4× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $387 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $205–$247. Note: our $387 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($205–$247). Not investment advice.
$205.00 – $247.00 (median $219.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $219.50 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $1529.94 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1566.99 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $152.56 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $96.51 | 1.8 | 54.59 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $207.59 | 7.4 | 27.98 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $290.77 | 15.3 | 18.95 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $233.74 | 1.5 | 152.41 | TTM | medium |
| residual income | 12M | $115.44 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $252.83 | 13.3 | 18.95 | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $304.70 | 15.3 | 19.86 | Triangulated | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $146.77 | 1.8 | 83.02 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $315.71 | 7.4 | 42.55 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $218.07 | 15.3 | 14.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $262.97 | 1.5 | 171.47 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $189.62 | 13.3 | 14.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $194.11 | 1.8 | 109.80 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $417.53 | 7.4 | 56.27 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $180.01 | 15.3 | 11.73 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $283.99 | 1.5 | 185.17 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $156.52 | 13.3 | 11.73 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.