Progressive Corporation (PGR)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$218.95-2.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PGR
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $219 the market pays 3.7× p/b — above the 1.7× p/b peer median but in line with its own 4× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $383 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $198–$245. Note: our $383 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($198–$245). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $221.00 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $1581.59 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1600.59 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $156.53 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/B |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$198.00 – $245.00 (median $221.00) · 17 analysts · as of 2026-08-27
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $101.02 |
| 1.7 |
| 58.77 |
| TTM |
| medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $184.99 | 6.8 | 27.30 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $259.54 | 14.0 | 18.53 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $222.63 | 1.4 | 155.86 | TTM | medium |
| residual income | 12M | $117.22 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $219.78 | 11.9 | 18.53 | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $275.42 | 14.0 | 19.66 | Triangulated | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $153.64 | 1.7 | 89.38 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $281.34 | 6.8 | 41.53 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $191.55 | 14.0 | 13.68 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $233.25 | 1.4 | 163.30 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $162.21 | 11.9 | 13.68 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $203.19 | 1.7 | 118.21 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $372.07 | 6.8 | 54.92 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $156.44 | 14.0 | 11.17 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $240.43 | 1.4 | 168.33 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $132.48 | 11.9 | 11.17 | Analyst | high |