Progressive Corporation (PGR)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$218.95-2.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PGR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 34 industry peers
PGR — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-10
Regulation FD Disclosure. On August 7, 2026, The Progressive Corporation’s (the “Company”) Board of Directors declared the Company’s quarterly common share dividend in the amount of ten cents ($0.10) per share, payable on October 9, 2026, to shareholders of record on October 1, 2026. On August 10, 2026, the Company released a report on its Catastrophe Reinsurance Program providing an overview of the Company’s reinsurance practices (the “Report”). A copy of the Report is attached hereto as Exh…
Why it matters: A buyback shows management's confidence in the company's value and can support share price.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of repurchase of at least 5 million shares.
Worry ifNo announcement of share repurchase within the next quarter.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income may show problems with profits or spending.
Worry ifNet income reported down more than 15% year over year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income reported down less than 15% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks show management believes in the company's value. This helps shareholders.
Supportive ifProgressive buys back over 1 million shares in Q3. This shows strong capital use.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3, suggesting a lack of confidence in stock value.
Why it matters: A higher combined ratio means rising costs or lower quality. This affects profits.
Worry ifCombined ratio for August is over 90%. This shows poor underwriting performance.
Less concerning ifCombined ratio for August is below 87%. This shows stable underwriting.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$99 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $239 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,849 loss on $10,000 · 18.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights into profitability and growth trends. Strong results could boost confidence.
Watch forQ2 earnings show net income growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows net income growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A lower combined ratio means better profits from underwriting. This helps growth goals.
Supportive ifCombined ratio improves to below 86% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCombined ratio worsens to above 90% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If net premiums written grow slower, it may show less competition and demand.
Worry ifAugust net premiums written growth reported below 5%.
Less concerning ifAugust net premiums written growth reported at or above 5%.
Why it matters: A combined ratio over 90% shows lower underwriting profits. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifThe Q3 combined ratio was over 90%.
Less concerning ifQ3 combined ratio reported at or below 90%.
Why it matters: If net income drops below this level, it may show bigger profit problems.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $700 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income reported at or above $700 million.
Why it matters: New share buyback plans show good use of money and trust in the company.
Supportive ifA new share buyback plan was announced for Q4.
Worry ifNo announcement of new share repurchase plans in Q4.