Progressive Corporation (PGR)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$233.18-0.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PGR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 30 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PGR — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-10
Regulation FD Disclosure. On August 7, 2026, The Progressive Corporation’s (the “Company”) Board of Directors declared the Company’s quarterly common share dividend in the amount of ten cents ($0.10) per share, payable on October 9, 2026, to shareholders of record on October 1, 2026. On August 10, 2026, the Company released a report on its Catastrophe Reinsurance Program providing an overview of the Company’s reinsurance practices (the “Report”). A copy of the Report is attached hereto as Exh…
Why it matters: September's combined ratio was 90.0%, while August's was 89.3%. A sharp rise would weaken the case for steady underwriting results.
Worry ifA monthly report shows a combined ratio above 95%.
Less concerning ifThe next monthly report shows a combined ratio at or below 90%.
Why it matters: The company kept its quarterly dividend at $0.10 through 2026-Q3. Another payment at that level would match its recent pattern.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly dividend of at least $0.10 per share.
Worry ifThe Board declares a quarterly dividend below $0.10 per share or no dividend.
Why it matters: Policies in force grew 6% year over year in September. More growth would support the premium growth trend.
Supportive ifThe next monthly report shows total policies in force up at least 6% year over year.
Worry ifThe next monthly report shows total policies in force up less than 3% year over year or down.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $239 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,424 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.