Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Progressive Corporation (PGR)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$233.18-0.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
16.25 → 16.21 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PGR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain share repurchase and quarterly dividends | A supporting condition in Progressive Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share and active buybacks. | Intact | Dividend cut or buyback suspension next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PGR is a profitable insurer with a growth-and-underwriting thesis, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent results strong, though confidence in the valuation read is low.
The valuation is tagged as stretched and carries a durable premium versus peers. The expectations gap is small, suggesting limited room between current assumptions and the model’s view, but confidence in that estimate is low. Valuation has eased recently, and fragility indicators remain low.
Near term, premium growth looks steady: policies in force rose 6% year over year, and net premiums written increased 4% year over year in 2026-Q3. The combined ratio, a measure of claims and expenses compared with premiums, remains stable, though its status is mixed. Recent earnings beats support the picture, but a history of misses is a risk to monitor.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on continued premium and customer growth alongside disciplined underwriting. Lower interest rates could weaken the Financials sector backdrop, while continued earnings strength at sector peers could support it. Peer earnings misses or weaker guidance would remove that support.
PGR’s multi-year view rests on durable premium growth and stable underwriting, with recent performance keeping the thesis intact. The main tension is strong fundamentals against stretched valuation expectations. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Progressive Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is <=87% combined ratio. |
| Under Pressure |
| Combined ratio rises above 89% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Smooth leadership transitions with planned successors | Leadership changes are planned with named successors. | Intact | Leadership changes cause major disruption or resignations | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net premiums written grow about 6% year-over-year | Progressive grows net premiums written about 6% yearly. | Intact | Net premiums growth falls below ~4% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$16.23 → $16.21 · observed estimates
$93.06B → $91.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $16.23 | $93,058,866,670 | 23 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $16.26 | $93,058,866,670 | 23 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $16.26 | $93,058,866,670 | 23 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $16.26 | $93,058,866,670 | 23 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $16.26 | $93,058,866,670 | 23 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $16.24 | $93,058,866,670 | 23 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $16.23 | $93,212,171,492 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $16.29 | $92,658,850,000 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $16.23 | $93,212,171,492 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $16.29 | $92,658,850,000 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $16.29 | $92,658,850,000 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $16.29 | $92,658,850,000 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $16.20 | $92,932,671,492 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $16.20 | $92,932,671,492 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $16.20 | $92,932,671,492 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $16.27 | $92,341,225,000 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $16.20 | $92,932,671,492 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $16.20 | $92,932,671,492 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $16.27 | $92,538,644,440 | 22 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $16.20 | $92,932,671,492 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $16.20 | $92,932,671,492 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $16.20 | $92,932,671,492 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $16.20 | $92,932,671,492 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $16.20 | $92,932,671,492 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $16.20 | $92,932,671,492 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $16.20 | $92,932,671,492 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $16.20 | $92,751,947,397 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $16.19 | $92,736,704,643 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $16.20 | $92,736,704,643 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $16.20 | $92,736,704,643 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $16.20 | $92,736,704,643 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $16.20 | $92,736,704,643 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $16.20 | $92,799,627,720 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $16.20 | $92,799,627,720 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $16.20 | $92,799,627,720 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $16.21 | $92,901,002,651 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $16.20 | $92,897,727,153 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $16.20 | $92,897,727,153 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $16.20 | $92,897,727,153 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $16.20 | $92,897,727,153 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $16.20 | $92,897,727,153 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $16.21 | $92,897,727,153 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $16.21 | $92,897,727,153 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $16.21 | $92,897,727,153 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $16.21 | $92,897,727,153 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $16.19 | $92,953,911,992 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $16.19 | $92,953,911,992 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $16.19 | $92,984,890,563 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $16.19 | $92,860,747,706 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $16.20 | $92,897,819,135 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $16.20 | $92,897,819,135 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $16.20 | $92,897,819,135 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $16.20 | $92,897,819,135 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $16.20 | $92,897,819,135 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $16.20 | $92,897,819,135 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $16.20 | $92,897,819,135 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $16.20 | $92,899,476,277 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $16.16 | $92,736,799,371 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $16.16 | $92,736,799,371 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $16.16 | $92,736,799,371 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $16.16 | $92,736,799,371 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.25 | $92,736,799,371 | 16 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.26 | $92,870,331,459 | 16 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.26 | $92,783,456,459 | 16 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.26 | $92,586,893,959 | 16 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.26 | $92,590,738,599 | 16 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.26 | $92,590,738,599 | 16 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.26 | $92,590,738,599 | 16 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.26 | $92,590,738,599 | 16 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.26 | $92,590,738,599 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.16 | $92,011,394,505 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.15 | $91,851,840,854 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.15 | $91,851,840,854 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.15 | $91,788,465,854 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.15 | $91,788,465,854 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.20 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.21 | $91,565,862,547 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.21 | $91,565,855,880 | 16 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $16.21 | $91,565,855,880 | 16 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
2 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.