PGR
Progressive CorporationNYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, PGR has a composite score of 22.8 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.5 and reflects strengths in management (52.2) and valuation (77.8), which is considered inexpensive. However, there are weaknesses in macro factors, with a macro score of -7.7 and sector score of 14.6, indicating some unfavorable conditions. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.30
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.79 → $3.74 (-1.1% / 30d). 8 raised, 10 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 23%; 252d 22%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −29%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 0.41 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 63/100, drawdown 41/100, beta 41/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PGR Progressive Corporation | +23 | inexpensive | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter EPS surprise repeats current direction (latest surprise +11.8% on 2026-03-31)+2.4 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-1524d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 15, 2026, The Progressive Corporation (the “Company”) issued a news release containing financial results of the Company and its consolidated subsidiaries for the month and year-to-date periods ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 42
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.