Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (PHAT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.50+4.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PHAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -68.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 72.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 141.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers
PHAT — litigation filed
Dated 2026-06-23
Other Events. On June 23, 2026, Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“Phathom” or the “Company”) announced it has completed enrollment in its Phase 2 pHalcon-EoE-201 clinical trial evaluating VOQUEZNA ® (vonoprazan) tablets as an investigational treatment for eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”) in adults. The study has enrolled 95 patients at 41 U.S. sites. Topline results are anticipated in the fourth quarter 2026. The pHalcon-EoE-201 study is a two-part, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled…
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue guidance shows the company is on track for its financial goals.
Supportive ifQ2 net revenues were between $80 million and $86 million. This matches full-year guidance.
Worry ifQ2 net revenues are below $80 million. This shows possible problems in execution.
Why it matters: Getting an 80% gross margin is important for financial health and investor trust.
Supportive ifGross margin reported at or above 75% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 70% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching profit would be a big step and boost investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement shares operating profit for Q3 2026. This does not include stock pay.
Worry ifOperating losses continue in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance is important. It helps keep investors confident in Phathom's growth.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue meets or exceeds the updated guidance of $320-$345 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue falls below the updated guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$247 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $637 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,448 loss on $10,000 · 54.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Making a profit would be a big step for Phathom and show good cost control.
Supportive ifPhathom reports a profit, not counting stock-based pay, in Q3 2026.
Worry ifPhathom does not reach operating profit in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Enrollment in this trial is key for expanding VOQUEZNA's market potential. Success could lead to new revenue streams.
Supportive ifFirst subject enrollment for the Phase 3 trial occurs in Q4 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment is delayed beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Good results may help future plans and keep VOQUEZNA's market edge.
Watch forTopline results from the Phase 2 trial are positive.
Also watch forTopline results from the Phase 2 trial are negative.