Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (PHAT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$5.08-10.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PHAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -76.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 64.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 141.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PHAT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2026, Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Sec…
Why it matters: Q3 revenue rose 71% year over year, and Phathom kept its full-year range. The year-end result tests whether growth met that range.
Watch forFY 2026 net revenue is at least $310 million and no more than $325 million.
Also watch forFY 2026 net revenue is below $310 million or above $325 million, or Phathom cuts the range before reporting results.
Why it matters: The results will show whether VOQUEZNA may have a path into EoE. Phathom said positive results could guide talks with FDA on next steps.
Watch forQ4 2026 topline results meet the trial's stated goals for efficacy and support more EoE development.
Also watch forThe results fail the trial's stated efficacy goals, or topline results do not arrive by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Phathom reported positive operating cash flow for two straight quarters and said cash plus future operating cash should cover its needs. A reversal would test that claim.
Watch forThe next reported quarter again shows cash flow from operations above zero.
Also watch forThe next reported quarter shows negative cash flow from operations. Or cash falls below $184.6 million without a stated cause that reverses the trend.
Why it matters: The Phase 3 trial began, with its first subject dosed. Keeping enrollment on track is needed before the planned Q1 2028 results.
Supportive ifPhathom reports active U.S. site enrollment and keeps the topline result window at Q1 2028.
Worry ifPhathom reports a pause, major delay, or a shift of the expected topline results beyond Q1 2028.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$246 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $804 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,190 loss on $10,000 · 71.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.