Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Impinj, Inc. (PI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$161.06-10.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.80 → 2.85 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS recovers from -$0.05 in Q3 2026 to positive | A supporting condition in Impinj, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.10. | Intact | EPS remains negative through 2026-Q4 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PI is a higher-risk growth business whose thesis depends on rising demand for endpoint ICs and continued progress toward profitability. The thesis state is watch: momentum and recent earnings reports have improved, while financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
PI is valued at a 3.14 premium versus peers, with the model pointing to optionality, or value tied to future possibilities, as the main source of valuation difference. The expectations gap is 0.31, but model confidence is low; the evidence flags the valuation as expensive without showing broad fragility across valuation, business weakness, and turbulent conditions.
Near-term results show progress: revenue rose from $74.250 million in 2026-Q1 to $112.083 million in 2026-Q3, with record endpoint IC revenue and unit volumes in Q3. Operating income improved from a loss in Q1 to positive $4.591 million in Q3, and adjusted EBITDA was $24.5 million, though operating income remained negative for the first nine months of 2026. A guidance cut would be a meaningful near-term risk, despite a low estimated miss probability and recent earnings beats.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on endpoint IC demand and M800 and Gen2X momentum translating into sustained growth and stronger operating profitability. A guidance cut could weaken that case, while easier rates or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop. Product adoption evidence remains limited because the supplied results do not give product-specific unit or adoption figures.
For the 1 to 3 year view, PI has clearer growth and profitability progress, but the business is still loss-making over the first nine months and its valuation is expensive versus peers. The thesis hinges on continued execution, with guidance and product adoption important near-term checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Impinj, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is gross profit >= $36 million. |
| Under Pressure |
| gross profit falls below $30 million in next 4 quarters |
Gross profit: $59.129M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: gross profit >= $36 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 202659,129,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves from -$15.2M in Q1 2026 | Management targets improving operating income from -$15.2M in Q1. | Under Pressure | operating income remains below -$10 million by 2026-Q4 | Operating income: $4.591M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: operating income > -$5 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 20264,591,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue recovers to at least $104.5M in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Impinj, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $104.5 million. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $90 million in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $112.083M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $104.5 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 2026112,083,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.82 → $2.85 · observed estimates
$0.46B → $0.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.82 | $461,488,330 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.82 | $461,488,330 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.82 | $461,488,330 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.82 | $461,488,330 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.82 | $461,488,330 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.82 | $461,488,330 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.82 | $461,488,330 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.81 | $468,790,700 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.81 | $468,790,700 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.81 | $468,790,700 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.81 | $468,790,700 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.81 | $468,790,700 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.81 | $468,790,700 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.81 | $468,790,700 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.81 | $468,790,699 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.80 | $468,388,037 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.80 | $468,391,862 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.80 | $468,393,112 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.80 | $468,389,287 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.80 | $468,389,287 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.81 | $468,368,732 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.81 | $468,368,732 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.81 | $468,368,732 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.81 | $468,368,732 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.81 | $468,368,732 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.81 | $468,368,732 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.81 | $468,368,732 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.81 | $468,368,732 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.81 | $468,368,732 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.81 | $469,343,395 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.88 | $477,874,258 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.87 | $477,874,258 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.87 | $477,874,258 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.87 | $477,874,258 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.85 | $477,874,258 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.85 | $477,874,258 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.85 | $477,874,258 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 6 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.