Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
P3 Health Partners Inc (PIII)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.22+9.90%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PIII yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Raise adjusted EBITDA to $40M in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA is targeted at $40M for the year. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA remains below $20 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PIII is a high-risk, improving-results story rather than an established durable compounder, since it remains loss-making. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the overall signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation score fell from 70.0 to 57.8, a decline of 12.2 points, but the snapshot does not provide peer comparisons or a clear account of market expectations. The valuation picture is therefore hard to judge, and the company’s continuing losses make a conventional value case difficult to assess.
Near-term results have been strong: revenue rose modestly, and adjusted EBITDA moved from a loss to a gain, while management raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook after first- and second-quarter results. Revenue guidance was later narrowed at the upper end, and a recent guidance reversal, erratic earnings surprises, or ongoing Nasdaq compliance issues remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA progress continue without another guidance reversal, and whether the company addresses its Nasdaq listing compliance issue. A weaker jobs trend could pressure cyclical healthcare names, while continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PIII’s improving financial performance supports an intact long-term thesis, but losses, volatile management signals, and compliance concerns leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in P3 Health Partners Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Net loss less negative than -$95 million in FY25, improving in FY26. |
| Improving |
| Net loss worsens beyond -$110 million in FY25 or FY26 |
Net income: $7.444M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net loss less negative than -$95 million in FY25, improving in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20267,444,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain listing compliance and avoid delisting | A supporting condition in P3 Health Partners Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No delisting notices or continued listing rule failures. | Under Pressure | Receipt of new delisting notices or failure to meet listing standards | Delisting notice received (May 2026) Nasdaq delisting notices filed May 2026; no evidence of compliance restoration. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue to $1.5B-$1.7B in 2026 | A primary condition in P3 Health Partners Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.5 billion and <= $1.7 billion total revenue. | Intact | Total revenue falls below $1.4 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $386.381M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.5 billion and <= $1.7 billion total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026386,381,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Total revenue was $386 million, an increase of 9% compared with the prior year quarter.” “• Total revenue was $386 million, an increase of 4% compared to the first quarter of the prior year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-3.00 → $-10.16 · observed estimates
$1.65B → $1.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-3.00 | $1,646,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-10.60 | $1,696,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-10.60 | $1,696,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-10.60 | $1,696,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-10.60 | $1,696,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-10.60 | $1,696,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-10.60 | $1,696,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-10.60 | $1,696,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-10.60 | $1,696,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-10.60 | $1,696,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-10.16 | $1,696,750,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-10.16 | $1,696,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.