Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.61-8.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.68 → 3.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PKOH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS around $3.05 in 2026 | A supporting condition in Park-Ohio Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS near $3.05 in FY26. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.7 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.86 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS near $3.05 in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.86 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PKOH is an industrial company with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The multi-year view is intact, with recent financial performance strong, although company quality has weakened and cash flow progress is mixed.
The evidence describes PKOH as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the valuation model’s view and no flagged fragility. The market’s expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot does not explain the size or cause of that gap, so what investors already assume is only partly clear.
Near term, revenue and adjusted earnings are tracking management’s raised 2026 outlook, supported by growth in the first half of the year. Cash flow is less consistent, and a guidance cut on the next call or continued earnings misses would weaken the setup.
The multi-year view hinges on PKOH sustaining revenue growth, meeting its raised earnings outlook, and converting progress into the guided free cash flow. Near-term industrial-sector momentum is another swing factor: results and guidance from GEV, PH, and EMR could signal whether the sector tailwind continues or fades.
Over the next one to three years, PKOH’s case rests on continued operating growth and better cash generation, with a cheap-versus-peers valuation offset by execution and sector risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets $20M to $30M in free cash flow for the year. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $10M in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $-1.8M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: FCF between $20M and $30M in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-1,800,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Operating cash flows of $16 million and free cash flow of $7 million; expect $35 to $45 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2026.” “• Operating cash flow of $9 million compared to a use of $14 million in the 2025 second quarter, an improvement of $23 million year-over-year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Increase revenue by 5% to 7% in 2026 | A primary condition in Park-Ohio Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.69B revenue in FY26. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.61B in FY26 | Revenue: $440.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.69B revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026440,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Third Quarter 2026 Highlights • Record revenue of $459 million, up 15% year-over-year.” “• FY 2026 Sales outlook raised to $1.750 billion to $1.770 billion.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.40 → $3.68 · observed estimates
$1.76B → $1.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.43 | $1,758,452,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.43 | $1,758,452,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.43 | $1,758,452,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.43 | $1,758,452,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.43 | $1,758,452,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.57 | $1,769,552,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.57 | $1,769,552,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.57 | $1,769,552,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.40 | $1,758,486,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.68 | $1,783,734,667 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.