Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.48+3.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Generate $20M to $30M in free cash flow in 2026: FCF guidance $20M-$30M vs target $20M-$30M.
Park-Ohio aims to grow revenue by 5% to 7% in 2026. The company targets $20M to $30M in free cash flow for the year. Its valuation is cheap compared to peers with a PE of 13.5 versus 31.3 median. Recent revenue growth from $395M to $421M in Q1 shows progress.
Park-Ohio has missed earnings multiple times recently. Free cash flow was negative $7.8M in Q1, showing cash generation issues. The sector faces headwinds, and guidance is soft. These risks could delay growth and cash flow targets.
The price is about 35% below our fair value near $55. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth. The market prices in moderate growth but also some risk given recent earnings misses.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.7 in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $10M in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth opportunity with a focus on revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by recent strong financial results, but it is sensitive to sector performance.
The market currently prices PKOH as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. There is a justified valuation, indicating that the stock is not overly expensive relative to its industry.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue and earnings targets for 2026, reflecting strong recent performance. However, cash flow performance is mixed, which may introduce some uncertainty in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the results of major players like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for PKOH.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain positive free cash flow generation to support operations and strategic initiatives.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating cash flow improved significantly from a negative $14 million in 2025-Q2 to positive $9 million in 2026-Q2. Management maintains free cash flow guidance of $20 million to $30 million for 2026. The trajectory shows mixed cash flow performance but overall progress toward the stated free cash flow target.
“Operating cash flow of $9 million compared to a use of $14 million in 2025 second quarter, an improvement of $23 million.”
“Operating cash flow was negative $7.8 million in Q1 2026.”
“Operating cash flow was positive $48.7 million in Q4 2025.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.61B in FY26
Drive revenue growth across all business segments with focus on key markets including aerospace, defense, AI data center, and industrial electrification.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $805.5 million in first half 2025 to $861.1 million in first half 2026, a 7% increase. Management raised the full-year 2026 net sales outlook to $1.700 billion to $1.730 billion, reflecting 6% to 8% growth over 2025. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth aligned with management's stated target.
“Record revenue of $440 million, up 10% year-over-year; raising 2026 outlook to $1.700 billion to $1.730 billion.”
“Reaffirming full year 2026 guidance: Net Sales $1.675 billion to $1.710 billion, an increase of 5% to 7% over 2025.”
“Full Year 2026 Outlook: Net Sales $1.675 billion to $1.710 billion, an increase of 5% to 7% over 2025 sales.”
Overall, PKOH's fundamentals show promise, but the investment outlook is tied to external sector dynamics. Not investment advice.