Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.61-8.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PKOH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PKOH — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026 , Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. issued a press release announcing its quarter ended March 31, 2026 results. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Excha…
Why it matters: First-half adjusted EPS was $1.57. The next report will show whether earnings keep pace with the higher full-year range.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EPS is at least $0.90, and management keeps the $3.10 to $3.30 full-year range.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EPS is below $0.77, or management cuts the full-year range below $3.10.
Why it matters: Q3 sales below that level would break the recent growth pace. Sales above it would support the 2026 outlook.
Watch forQ3 net sales are above $430 million and year-over-year sales grow in all three segments.
Also watch forQ3 net sales are below $420 million, or sales fall year over year in two or more segments.
Why it matters: Backlog rose 29% year over year to $252 million. Higher sales would show that orders are reaching customers.
Supportive ifEngineered Products revenue grows year over year in Q3, and backlog stays above $252 million.
Worry ifEngineered Products revenue falls year over year in Q3, or backlog drops below $252 million.
Why it matters: The cash target is unchanged, while the company has called progress mixed. Q2 operating cash flow improved to $9 million from a $14 million use.
Watch forFull-year 2026 free cash flow is at least $20 million.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 free cash flow is below $20 million, or management lowers the $20 million to $30 million range.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $380 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,838 loss on $10,000 · 18.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company says SSP may be sold or handled in another deal. Its 2026 outlook includes an estimated $0.50 loss per share from SSP.
Supportive ifPark-Ohio announces a sale or other deal for SSP. Or it says SSP is no longer expected to add about $0.50 of loss per share in 2026.
Worry ifPark-Ohio reports no deal and keeps SSP in the business with an estimated loss near $0.50 per share for 2026.