Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-03 · fmp
Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$8.14-7.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PLAY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Generate over $100M in free cash flow | It targets over $100M in free cash flow for fiscal 2026. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $100M in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-37.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $100M free cash flow in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 14, 2026-37,900,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 8, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PLAY is a high-risk, loss-making business with a store expansion and cash-generation story, rather than an established durable compounder. The thesis is currently intact, though company momentum has weakened and the signal has shifted from mixed to cautious.
The valuation evidence is mixed and model confidence is low: PLAY is described as cheap versus peers, while also carrying a modest peer premium. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment is justified, but the evidence does not show precisely what investors expect.
Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated after consecutive misses, and the latest reported miss adds pressure. Over the multi-year view, management is progressing toward its fiscal 2026 free-cash-flow goal and planned store openings and remodels, while increasing same-store sales and revenue remains a priority to watch.
The near-term downside scenario is a guidance cut at the next call, which could reinforce the pattern of estimates being reduced. Favorable factors would include Fed rate cuts and continued strong results and guidance from large Communication Services companies. Over the multi-year view, the central test is whether store growth and remodels support stronger sales while cash generation continues.
For the next 1 to 3 years, PLAY’s long-term thesis has some support from progress on cash flow and store expansion, but repeated earnings misses and high risk leave execution uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management is stable and focused on increasing same store sales. |
| Under Pressure |
| significant management turnover or loss of strategic focus |
Qualitative: CEO turnover + Moelis debt advisory CEO retired in Aug 2026; Moelis hired for debt aid in Oct 2026; Moody's outlook cut to negative. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase same store sales and overall revenue | Management is stable and focused on increasing same store sales. | Intact | total revenue falls below $2.1B in FY26 | Revenue: $544.1M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.1B total revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 14, 2026544,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.20 → $-1.18 · observed estimates
$2.21B → $2.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.20 | $2,213,802,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.22 | $2,213,429,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.22 | $2,213,429,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.22 | $2,213,429,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.22 | $2,213,429,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.22 | $2,213,429,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.22 | $2,213,429,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.22 | $2,213,429,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.22 | $2,213,429,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.22 | $2,213,429,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.22 | $2,213,429,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.22 | $2,213,429,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.22 | $2,213,429,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.26 | $2,212,102,358 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.51 | $2,194,898,631 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.03 | $2,160,228,136 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.18 | $2,157,746,317 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.18 | $2,157,746,317 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.18 | $2,157,746,317 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.18 | $2,157,746,317 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.18 | $2,157,746,317 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.18 | $2,157,746,317 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.18 | $2,157,746,317 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.18 | $2,157,746,317 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.18 | $2,157,746,317 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,939 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.18 | $2,154,020,939 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.18 | $2,154,025,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.18 | $2,154,025,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.18 | $2,154,025,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-1.18 | $2,154,315,069 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.