Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$8.14-7.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PLAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers
PLAY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-14
of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. On September 14, 2026, Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results its second quarter 2026 results. A copy of this Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell from $129.8 million to $98.9 million. Another drop would show earnings pressure continued.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is lower than the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA matches or exceeds the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: Sales fell 2.9% in Q2, but management said Q3 sales improved. A return to growth would test that claim.
Worry ifQ3 comparable store sales fall from a year ago. This confirms sales remain weak despite the reported improvement.
Less concerning ifQ3 comparable store sales rise year over year, confirming a return to growth.
Why it matters: Management set a $100 million cash goal. The latest report showed $19.5 million for the first six months.
Supportive ifThe fiscal 2026 report shows adjusted free cash flow above $100 million.
Worry ifThe fiscal 2026 report shows adjusted free cash flow at or below $100 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$347 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $748 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,986 loss on $10,000 · 69.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.