Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.72+0.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PLAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -89.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 93.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers
PLAY — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-04
CEO — Tarun Lal: Tarun Lal retired as CEO and was succeeded by Darin Harper.
Why it matters: The earnings report will reveal if the company meets its goal of generating over $100 million in free cash flow.
Watch forEarnings report shows free cash flow exceeding $25 million for Q2.
Also watch forFree cash flow reported below $10 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Positive same store sales would show that management's strategy is working. It would signal a recovery in customer traffic and spending.
Supportive ifSame store sales growth of at least 1% compared to Q2 of 2025.
Worry ifSame store sales decline continues or worsens beyond -5.4%.
Why it matters: Better store sales would show that the basic strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ2 comparable store sales increase year over year by more than 5.4%.
Worry ifComparable store sales decline or stay flat year over year.
Why it matters: Opening new stores and remodeling old ones can help growth. This may lead to better sales.
Supportive ifAt least three new stores opened and two remodels completed by the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifFewer than three new stores opened or fewer than two remodels completed by the end of fiscal 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$342 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $728 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,507 loss on $10,000 · 65.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new CEO's approach will affect the company's ongoing strategy and performance.
Watch forDarin Harper uses the Back-to-Basics plan well. This leads to better financial results.
Also watch forDarin Harper has trouble with the strategy. This causes further drops in key metrics.
Why it matters: The new CEO may change focus or strategy. This could affect performance and investor trust.
Watch forDarin Harper has a clear plan. It aims to boost same-store sales and EBITDA.
Also watch forDarin Harper does not share a clear strategy. Same-store sales may keep declining.
Why it matters: The sector's performance can impact Dave & Buster's. A positive shift could help improve its sales outlook.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for the last year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Same-store sales are key to growth. A decline would show ongoing challenges.
Worry ifSame-store sales decline worse than -5.4% in Q2 compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifSame-store sales increase or decline less than -5.4% in Q2.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is crucial for growth and market presence.
Supportive ifAt least three new stores open before the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifNo new stores open before the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in the Board could impact company strategy and governance.
Watch forGood results from the annual meeting can improve governance.
Also watch forBad results or issues can come from the annual meeting.
Why it matters: Same store sales are key to understanding if the company's strategies are working. A positive result would show progress.
Supportive ifQ2 same store sales growth turns positive year over year.
Worry ifQ2 same store sales decline further year over year.
Why it matters: Generating over $100 million in free cash flow is a key goal for management. Achieving this would signal strong cash generation.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow exceeds $100 million in fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow falls below $50 million in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: New store openings are part of the growth strategy. Their performance will indicate if expansion is successful.
Watch forNew stores achieve sales above $1 million in the first quarter after opening.
Also watch forNew stores generate less than $500,000 in sales in the first quarter after opening.