Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Playboy Inc (PLBY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.37+3.01%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.05 → 0.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PLBY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective share buyback program execution | A supporting condition in Playboy Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Ongoing share repurchases in 2026. | Intact | Share buyback program is halted or reversed in 2026 | 16.6M shares repurchased vs ongoing target PLBY entered a stock repurchase agreement for 16.6M shares in June 2026; director purchased $5M in Nov 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround and growth case, not a proven durable compounder, because the company remains loss-making and management execution has been volatile. The long-term thesis is still active, but recent performance has weakened the setup and the company’s quality score fell.
PLBY trades at a premium to peers, while the expectations gap is aligned with the valuation view. The evidence labels the pricing as unjustified, though fragility is low because the broader expensive, weak, and turbulent conditions do not all apply at once.
Near-term results may remain uneven: PLBY missed earnings in August, recent performance sits below its industry cohort, and the estimated chance of another miss is 45%. Over the multi-year view, revenue growth and debt reduction are constructive signs, but the company is still loss-making and the announced share repurchase is recent and not yet fully executed.
The next guidance update is a key swing factor, since a cut would add to recent execution concerns. The thesis also depends on licensing and partnership growth continuing, debt declining, and the share repurchase being completed as planned. Consumer Discretionary sector momentum could help or fade depending on results and guidance from bellwethers such as AMZN, BABA, and PDD.
The 1-3 year view is mixed: growth and deleveraging support the thesis, while losses, recent misses, and volatile execution remain material risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Playboy Inc's published investment case. The stated target is > -1.6 million USD. |
| Broken |
| Operating income declines further below -$1.6 million in next 4 quarters |
Operating income: $2.975M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > -1.6 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 20262,975,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $100 million in 2026 | Playboy aims to grow revenue to at least $100 million by 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $100 million in FY26 | Revenue: $31.218M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=100 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202631,218,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Progress in strategic partnerships and M&A activity | Strategic partnerships and M&A activity support growth. | Intact | No meaningful M&A or partnership activity by end of 2026 | Qualitative: Active M&A/partnership signals present (Director buy, Buyback agreement) vs Target: Sustained activity Director bought $5M stock; Company entered 16.6M share repurchase agreement with Fortress Investment Group. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.06 → $0.05 · observed estimates
$0.13B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.06 | $134,618,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.06 | $134,618,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.06 | $134,618,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.06 | $134,618,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.06 | $134,885,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.06 | $134,618,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.06 | $135,539,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.06 | $135,539,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.06 | $135,539,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.06 | $135,539,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.05 | $137,309,500 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.