Playboy Inc (PLBY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.17-0.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PLBY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 96.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 89.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PLBY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
of this Report, including Exhibit 99.1, attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, expect as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Paying down debt is important for better financial health and stability.
Supportive ifManagement reports paying down over $10 million in debt in Q3.
Worry ifNo announcements of further debt reduction in Q3.
Why it matters: New partnerships could help growth. They show that management is focused on key plans.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new partnership with a major brand or company.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Stable or rising licensing revenue helps predict future cash flow.
Supportive ifLicensing revenue grows or stays above $11 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLicensing revenue falls below $10 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Partnerships can drive growth and improve market position. The company has mixed progress in this area.
Supportive ifA new partnership will help the brand reach more people or make more money.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced and existing partnerships show no growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$230 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $682 loss on $10,000 · 6.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,904 loss on $10,000 · 59.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows that costs are managed well and operations are better.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 turns positive or improves compared to Q2 2026's $0.2 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 remains negative or declines from Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The share buyback lowers the number of shares. This helps the stock price.
Supportive ifThe company bought back 16.6 million shares as planned.
Worry ifThe company fails to complete the share repurchase by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps the balance sheet. It also supports future growth. This shows management cares about financial health.
Supportive ifThe company reduces senior debt by at least $15 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifSenior debt remains unchanged or increases in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth in Honey Birdette supports overall revenue growth and brand strength.
Supportive ifHoney Birdette reports sales growth above 15% year over year for Q3 2026.
Worry ifHoney Birdette sales growth falls below 10% year over year for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better cost management may mean the company is more efficient. This could lead to more profit.
Supportive ifOperating income is better than the -$1.6M in Q1.
Worry ifOperating income falls more in Q2.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback would lower the number of shares. This could raise earnings per share and show good capital management.
Supportive ifPlayboy completes the buyback of 16.6 million shares by the end of December 2026.
Worry ifThe buyback is not completed by December 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in licensing revenue is key to Playboy's business and total revenue.
Supportive ifLicensing revenue grows year over year by more than 3% in Q3.
Worry ifLicensing revenue declines year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Reducing debt will help improve Playboy's financial health.
Supportive ifPlayboy announces more debt reduction beyond the $15 million already paid.
Worry ifNo further debt reduction announcements are made in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows a profit or revenue growth compared to Q1.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows another loss or revenue decline.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show that Playboy is gaining momentum in its recovery. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.