Playboy Inc (PLBY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.24-9.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PLBY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 120.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 112.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers
PLBY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
of this Report, including Exhibit 99.1, attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, expect as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Management has tied future UTG payments to debt reduction. More paydown would support its stated plan; delays would leave that plan less advanced.
Supportive ifA company filing or earnings report confirms a new senior debt payment funded by UTG proceeds.
Worry ifA later report shows no added debt paydown from UTG proceeds, or reports that expected proceeds were delayed.
Why it matters: The deal would remove nearly 14% of shares, but it is still an execution step to track. The backstop adds another party to the agreement.
Supportive ifA company filing confirms the full 16.6 million shares were repurchased at $1.05 per share.
Worry ifA filing says the repurchase ended, fell below 16.6 million shares, or was not completed.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue rose 11%, led by Honey Birdette. Another strong quarter would show that growth is continuing.
Supportive ifIn the November 5 report, Q3 revenue is above $31.2 million and grows more than 11% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is flat or down year over year, or grows less than Q2's 11% rate.
Why it matters: Licensing revenue slipped in Q1, then rose slightly in Q2. A further drop would test whether new deals replace expired agreements.
Worry ifQ3 licensing revenue is below $10.9 million, or falls year over year for a second straight reported quarter.
Less concerning ifQ3 licensing revenue tops $10.9 million and grows year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$184 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $682 loss on $10,000 · 6.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,374 loss on $10,000 · 63.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.