Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Planet Fitness (PLNT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$57.34+4.20%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.66 → 3.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PLNT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Open approximately 180 to 190 new clubs system-wide in 2026 | They plan to open around 185 new clubs this year. | Intact | new club openings fall below 160 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PLNT is a growth-oriented consumer discretionary business whose multi-year view depends on continued revenue growth and club investment. The thesis is intact, though recent performance is mixed: revenue growth remains on track at a lower rate, while same-club sales growth has slowed.
The evidence tags expectations as justified, with low fragility and a modest negative expectations gap. It does not provide peer valuation data, so whether PLNT is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear.
Near term, management is targeting approximately 7% revenue growth in 2026 and has reiterated that goal after lowering it from 9%. Same-club sales growth has eased from 3.5% in the first quarter to 1.7% in the second, while management’s updated full-year goal is about 1%; higher capital spending adds execution risk. Recent earnings beats and a risk label that moved from high to elevated are supportive, but a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
The multi-year thesis hinges on delivery against moderated growth goals and whether increased investment in corporate-owned clubs supports the business. Near term, PLNT’s setup also depends on guidance and sector signals: continued strength from bellwethers could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PLNT’s thesis remains intact but carries elevated risk, with slower same-club sales growth and delivery against management’s goals as key tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Planet Fitness's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26 |
Revenue growth: 7.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20267.141537 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
System-wide same club sales growth of approximately 1% in 2026 | A supporting condition in Planet Fitness's published investment case. The stated target is >=1% YoY. | Intact | same club sales growth falls below 0% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.60 → $3.66 · observed estimates
$1.53B → $1.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.60 | $1,529,036,266 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.58 | $1,526,569,050 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.58 | $1,526,569,050 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.58 | $1,526,569,050 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.58 | $1,526,569,050 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.58 | $1,525,138,687 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.58 | $1,525,138,687 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.58 | $1,525,138,687 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.58 | $1,525,138,687 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.59 | $1,528,265,600 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.59 | $1,528,265,600 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.59 | $1,527,026,124 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.59 | $1,527,026,124 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.59 | $1,527,026,124 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.60 | $1,527,351,298 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.64 | $1,528,366,490 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.64 | $1,528,366,490 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.64 | $1,528,366,490 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.64 | $1,522,441,610 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.64 | $1,522,441,610 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.60 | $1,527,351,298 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.60 | $1,527,351,298 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.60 | $1,527,351,298 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.60 | $1,527,351,298 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.60 | $1,527,351,298 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.60 | $1,527,351,298 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.65 | $1,522,992,064 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.65 | $1,522,992,064 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.65 | $1,522,992,064 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.64 | $1,522,654,860 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.64 | $1,522,654,860 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.64 | $1,522,654,860 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.66 | $1,523,895,324 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.66 | $1,522,311,113 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.66 | $1,523,783,953 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.66 | $1,523,783,953 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.66 | $1,523,783,953 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.66 | $1,523,783,953 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.66 | $1,523,783,953 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.66 | $1,523,783,953 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.66 | $1,524,819,104 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.65 | $1,524,832,048 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.65 | $1,524,832,048 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.65 | $1,524,832,048 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.65 | $1,523,842,181 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.65 | $1,523,842,181 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.65 | $1,523,842,181 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.65 | $1,523,386,759 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.65 | $1,523,386,759 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.65 | $1,523,386,759 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.66 | $1,523,471,359 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.66 | $1,523,470,092 | 11 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.