Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.23-0.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.38 → 1.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PMT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share at $0.40 quarterly | PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust keeps paying a steady $0.40 dividend per share. | Broken | dividend per share falls below $0.40 in any quarter of FY26 | Dividend per share: $0.40 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.40 per share per quarter. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20260.4 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PMT is a rate-sensitive real estate investment with a value-oriented setup, not yet a durable earnings story. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent signals turned mildly favorable, while earnings quality remains fragile and overall risk is elevated.
PMT is described as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that valuation reading is low. The expectations gap is small, and the evidence says weak execution quality is reflected without a broader stack of valuation and business risks being concentrated in the price.
Near term, the October 29 earnings beat and stronger company momentum are constructive, but recent earnings have been erratic and the estimated miss risk remains worth watching. Management is progressing on securitizations and expanded its repurchase authorization, though the annual securitization plan is not yet confirmed complete and reported common net income was negative in the third quarter.
Over the next year, progress toward positive net income and completion of the planned securitizations will matter, alongside whether management carries out repurchases. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weaker guidance or cracks at sector peers could remove that support.
For the 1-to-3-year view, PMT has a cheaper-than-peers valuation and improved recent signals, but the thesis still depends on steadier earnings and demonstrated execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust's published investment case. The stated target is Complete ~30 securitizations in 2026. |
| Intact |
| number of securitizations completed in 2026 falls significantly below 30 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve positive net income each quarter | The company has positive net income each quarter, with $14.2 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | net income turns negative in any quarter of FY26 | Net income: $-25.372M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Positive net income each quarter in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026-25,372,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.49 → $1.38 · observed estimates
$0.40B → $0.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.49 | $400,665,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.49 | $400,665,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.49 | $400,665,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.49 | $400,665,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.49 | $400,665,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.49 | $400,665,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.48 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.47 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.47 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.43 | $400,005,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.43 | $400,005,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.43 | $400,005,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.40 | $400,005,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.45 | $401,944,902 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.40 | $388,024,782 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.40 | $388,024,782 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.38 | $389,749,105 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.37 | $389,792,365 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.37 | $389,792,365 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.37 | $389,792,365 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.37 | $389,792,365 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.37 | $389,792,365 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.37 | $389,792,365 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.36 | $387,455,061 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.36 | $387,455,061 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.36 | $387,454,965 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.36 | $387,454,965 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.36 | $387,454,965 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.36 | $387,454,965 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.36 | $387,454,965 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.36 | $387,454,965 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.36 | $387,455,061 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.36 | $387,455,061 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.36 | $387,455,061 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.36 | $387,455,061 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.36 | $387,455,061 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.36 | $387,455,061 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.36 | $387,455,061 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.36 | $387,455,061 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.38 | $391,655,956 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.38 | $391,655,956 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.38 | $390,405,956 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.38 | $390,405,956 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.38 | $390,405,956 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.38 | $390,405,956 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.38 | $390,405,956 | 5 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.