PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.64+0.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -53.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
PMT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (the “Company”) issued a press release and a slide presentation announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. Copies of the press release and the slide presentation used in connection with the Company’s presentation of financial results were made available on July 29, 2026 and are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively. In addition, the Company h…
Why it matters: Selling MSRs is important for PMT's capital use. It affects future investment chances.
Watch forThe sale closes successfully by the end of August 2026.
Also watch forThe sale does not close by the end of August 2026.
Why it matters: This sale is important. It helps free up money for better investment opportunities. It shows that management wants to focus more on credit investments instead of MSRs.
Supportive ifThe sale is successful. The money is then used for new credit investments.
Worry ifThe sale does not close as planned or is delayed significantly.
Why it matters: Positive net income means PMT is managing costs and investments well. This shows the company's financial health.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 remains above $20 million.
Worry ifNet income falls below $20 million.
Why it matters: Positive net income shows PMT can make money. This is important for shareholder trust.
Supportive ifNet income for common shareholders is at least $20 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet income falls below $15 million in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $287 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,086 loss on $10,000 · 30.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings report will show if the earnings miss is a trend or a one-time issue.
Worry ifQ2 earnings results show a loss greater than the previous quarter's loss of $X.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings results show a profit or a smaller loss than the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement confirming the dividend remains at $0.4 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend cut below $0.4 per share.
Why it matters: Earnings per share (EPS) shows PMT's financial health and growth ability.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 EPS is at least $0.23 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 2026 EPS is below $0.20.
Why it matters: Missing earnings raises concerns about future performance. It can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifThe next earnings report shows a big increase in earnings from last quarter.
Less concerning ifEarnings keep missing expectations or drop further.
Why it matters: Any change in the dividend could show shifts in PMT's financial health.
Watch forManagement maintains the dividend at $0.40 per share after Q3 results.
Also watch forManagement cuts the dividend. This shows possible financial strain.
Why it matters: An earnings miss could signal ongoing challenges in PMT's operations. It may affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings per share falls below $0.16.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 earnings per share meets or exceeds $0.16.
Why it matters: Positive net income is key for long-term success and growth.
Supportive ifReporting a quarter with positive net income.
Worry ifMore net losses are expected in the next quarters.
Why it matters: Higher net investment income shows better portfolio performance. It helps PMT's growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 net investment income exceeds $73 million.
Worry ifQ3 net investment income falls below $73 million.
Why it matters: Changes in book value per share show the company's financial health and asset management.
Watch forBook value per share increases from $14.98.
Also watch forBook value per share decreases from $14.98.
Why it matters: Finishing these securitizations helps build a strong investment base. It shows PMT can make money.
Supportive ifPMT closes at least 15 securitizations in 2026. This shows good progress.
Worry ifPMT does not close any more securitizations in 2026.
Why it matters: Improving net income shows PMT's ability to adapt and grow in a challenging market. It reflects management's focus.
Supportive ifPMT reports net income above $20 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifPMT's net income falls below $14 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows PMT cares about its shareholders. A cut may mean financial issues.
Watch forPMT declares and pays a dividend of $0.40 per share for the next quarter.
Also watch forPMT reduces the dividend from $0.40 per share.
Why it matters: Earnings reports give important details about PMT's finances and performance. They can change how investors feel.
Watch forEarnings report shows improved metrics compared to Q2 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report shows further declines in key metrics.