Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CPI Card Group, Inc. (PMTS)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.24+14.38%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.49 → 3.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PMTS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve low-to-mid single-digit Adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026 | CPI Card Group aims for high single-digit revenue growth in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 1% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “CPI continues to expect low-to-mid single-digit Adjusted EBITDA growth as growth and diversification investments continue.” “Adjusted EBITDA increased 17% to $27.5 million.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented financials business with improving earnings quality and a recent record of revenue growth and debt reduction. The thesis is in a watch state: recent financial performance trails its industry cohort, and company momentum has weakened, even though key management priorities remain on track.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s expectations may be ahead of the evidence. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not point to unusually concentrated expectations.
Near term, management’s priorities appear on track: revenue grew year over year, leverage reached its target range, and adjusted EBITDA grew in the first half of 2026. The next call is an important test because guidance was reaffirmed in August; a cut would be a meaningful negative, while smaller-cap status and erratic earnings surprises keep near-term risk elevated.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on maintaining 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth guidance while keeping leverage within the stated range. Fed rate cuts could weigh on the financials sector, while continued strong earnings and guidance from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express could support sector momentum.
For a 1 to 3 year view, PMTS has credible operating progress, but its expensive peer valuation, weaker recent momentum, and elevated risk make continued delivery central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain Net Leverage Ratio between 2.5x and 3.0x at year-end 2026 | A supporting condition in CPI Card Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Net Leverage Ratio between 2.5x and 3.0x. | Improving | Net Leverage Ratio exceeds 3.5x at year-end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Net Leverage Ratio decreased to 2.6x, down from 3.6x in the third quarter last year.” “The Company also expects its year-end Net Leverage Ratio towards the low-end of the 2.5x and 3.0x range.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve high single-digit revenue growth in 2026 | CPI Card Group aims for high single-digit revenue growth in 2026. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 14.78% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202614.779728 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company now expects low-double-digit revenue growth and Free Cash Flow of $50 million to $55 million, up from prior guidance of high-single-digit to low-double-digit revenue growth and $45 million to $50 million of Free Cash Flow.” “Year-to-Date 2026 Financial Highlights Revenue increased 16% to a company record of $454.6 million in the first nine months of 2026, compared to the prior year period.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.40 → $3.49 · observed estimates
$0.65B → $0.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.40 | $645,086,280 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.49 | $651,242,780 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.49 | $651,242,780 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.49 | $651,242,780 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.49 | $653,718,880 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.40 | $645,086,275 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.49 | $653,724,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.49 | $653,718,875 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.